WON Tip WON Riga 3-0 Super Nova
R

Riga

Home
W D W W W
7W 3D 0L → Steady
VS
3-0
S
Super Nova
Away
W W D L L
4W 1D 5L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 24th May 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 74.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +2.4% Value detected
Kelly % 9.4% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.34
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Riga vs Super Nova Competition: Latvia Virsliga Date: Sunday, 24th May 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.34 Confidence: 77% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
9
Riga
1
Draws
0
Super Nova
10
Meetings
4.6
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Riga
Metric
Super Nova
3
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-3-0
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
70%
40%
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
R0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 4.2%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 7.9%
1-1 9.1%
1-2 5.2%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 6.1%
3-1 7.0%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 3.3%
4-1 3.8%
4-2 2.2%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
R5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-1(9.1%) 2-0(8.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Riga
Overall
7.9
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.0
Super Nova
Overall
4.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
30.08.25VIR
Super Nova2
Riga FC6
22.06.25VIR
Riga FC2
Super Nova0
01.05.25VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC5
06.03.25VIR
Riga FC2
Super Nova0
29.10.23VIR
Riga FC1
Super Nova1
06.08.23VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC5
31.05.23VIR
Riga FC5
Super Nova1
20.04.23VIR
Super Nova0
Riga FC4
30.09.22VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
Recent Form
Riga
20.05.26VIR
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
W
16.05.26VIR
Riga FC2
Jelgava2
D
12.05.26VIR
Riga FC4
Auda1
W
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
W
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
22.04.26VIR
Riga FC4
Ogre United0
W
18.04.26VIR
Grobina0
Riga FC3
W
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
W
09.04.26VIR
Riga FC3
Tukums 20003
D
Super Nova
20.05.26VIR
Grobina0
Super Nova2
W
16.05.26VIR
Super Nova3
Ogre United1
W
11.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
Tukums 20001
D
06.05.26VIR
Jelgava1
Super Nova0
L
01.05.26VIR
Super Nova1
Auda2
L
27.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova1
W
23.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
FK Liepaja2
L
18.04.26VIR
RFS2
Super Nova0
L
14.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
L
09.04.26VIR
Grobina0
Super Nova1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 24th May 2026, Riga host Super Nova in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Riga arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Super Nova are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Riga, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Super Nova's 0, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Latvia Virsliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.34. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Riga vs Super Nova?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Riga's current form?
Riga have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Super Nova been performing recently?
Super Nova have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Riga lead with 9 wins versus Super Nova's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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