R
Riga
Home
W
W
W
W
L
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
6:00 pm
—
Skonto stadions (Riga)
V
Vardar
Away
W
L
W
L
W
7W 1D 2L
▲ Improving
Riga
50%
Draw
30%
Vardar
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
75.8%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-7.8%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Riga to win
1.32
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Riga vs Vardar
Competition: Conference League Qualifiers
Date: Tuesday, 28th July 2026
KO: 6:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Riga to win)
Odds: 1.32
Confidence: 68%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Riga
0
Draws
0
Vardar
1
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Riga won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Riga
Metric
Vardar
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.9
1
Goals Against / Game
1.1
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
8-1-1
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
R0
0-0
4.3%
0-1
6.2%
0-2
4.5%
0-3
2.2%
0-4
0.8%
0-5
0.2%
R1
1-0
7.3%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
7.7%
1-3
3.7%
1-4
1.3%
1-5
0.4%
R2
2-0
6.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.5%
2-3
3.2%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
R3
3-0
3.5%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
1.8%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
R4
4-0
1.5%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.6%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
R5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.0%)
1-0(7.3%)
2-0(6.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
R=Home goals ↓ V=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Riga Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Vardar Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
25%
Home Win & BTTS No
25%
Draw & BTTS Yes
3%
Draw & BTTS No
3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
22%
Away Win & BTTS No
22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
20%
Draw & Over 2.5
4%
Draw & Under 2.5
2%
Away Win & Over 2.5
26%
Away Win & Under 2.5
18%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Vardar2
Riga FC3
Recent Form
Riga
Vardar2
Riga FC3
Riga FC3
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
Ararat-Armenia2
Leevon PPK2
Riga FC3
Ararat-Armenia2
Riga FC0
Riga FC3
Jelgava0
Auda0
Riga FC2
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC0
Riga FC4
FK Liepaja0
Riga FC2
RFS1
Vardar
Vardar2
Bregalnica Stip0
Vardar2
Riga FC3
KuPS2
Vardar (AET)3
Vardar0
KuPS2
Virtus2
Vardar3
La Fiorita1
Vardar1
Vardar3
Shkendija0
Struga0
Vardar1
Vardar2
Sileks1
Bashkimi0
Vardar2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 28th July 2026, Riga host Vardar at Skonto stadions (Riga) in Conference League Qualifiers. We recommend Riga to win as the standout selection.
Riga arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Vardar are travelling well, with a record of 7W 1D 2L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Riga, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Vardar's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: riga to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Conference League Qualifiers match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.32, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 6:00 pm over at Skonto stadions (Riga).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Riga vs Vardar?
Our selection is 1 — Riga to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Riga's current form?
Riga have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vardar been performing recently?
Vardar have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Riga lead with 1 wins versus Vardar's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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