S
Sheriff Tiraspol
Home
D
W
W
D
W
6W 2D 2L
โ Steady
VS
โ
6:00 pm
โ
Sheriff Arena (Tiraspol)
A
Aluminij
Away
L
L
D
D
L
2W 3D 5L
โ Steady
Sheriff Tiraspol
50%
Draw
30%
Aluminij
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
74.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-20.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 โ Sheriff Tiraspol to win
1.34
Under 2.5 Goals65%
BTTS โ No75%
Sheriff Tiraspol Clean Sheet60%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Aluminij
Competition: Europa League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 9th July 2026
KO: 6:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Sheriff Tiraspol to win)
Odds: 1.34
Confidence: 54%
Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: BTTS โ No (75%)
Also: Sheriff Tiraspol Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
Neutral
No head-to-head data found.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sheriff Tiraspol
Metric
Aluminij
1.2
Goals For / Game
0.6
0.4
Goals Against / Game
1.6
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-2-2
W โ D โ L
2-3-5
Win Rate
1.9
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
S0
0-0
15.0%
0-1
7.5%
0-2
1.9%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.0%
0-5
0.0%
S1
1-0
20.9%
1-1
10.5%
1-2
2.6%
1-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
S2
2-0
14.7%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
1.8%
2-3
0.3%
2-4
0.0%
2-5
0.0%
S3
3-0
6.8%
3-1
3.4%
3-2
0.9%
3-3
0.1%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
S4
4-0
2.4%
4-1
1.2%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
S5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(20.9%)
2-0(14.7%)
2-1(7.3%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals โ A=Away โ
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Sheriff Tiraspol Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Aluminij Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
14%
Home Win & BTTS No
43%
Draw & BTTS Yes
6%
Draw & BTTS No
18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
5%
Away Win & BTTS No
14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
20%
Home Win & Under 2.5
37%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
16%
Away Win & Over 2.5
7%
Away Win & Under 2.5
12%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
No data found.
Recent Form
Sheriff Tiraspol
Politehnica UTM0
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Sheriff Tiraspol3
Real Sireti0
Sheriff Tiraspol2
Zimbru Chisinau0
Milsami0
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Sheriff Tiraspol2
Petrocub0
Sheriff Tiraspol1
Zimbru Chisinau0
Petrocub1
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Dacia Buiucani1
Sheriff Tiraspol2
Petrocub1
Sheriff Tiraspol0
Dacia Buiucani1
Sheriff Tiraspol2
Aluminij
Aluminij1
Partizan2
Aluminij0
Noah2
Aluminij2
Pyunik Yerevan2
Race1
Aluminij1
Maribor3
Aluminij0
Aluminij0
Primorje0
Grosuplje0
Aluminij1
Koper1
Aluminij0
Celje5
Aluminij0
Bravo0
Aluminij1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 9th July 2026, Sheriff Tiraspol host Aluminij at Sheriff Arena (Tiraspol) in Europa League Qualifier. We recommend Sheriff Tiraspol to win as the standout selection.
Sheriff Tiraspol arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Aluminij are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.
Our verdict: sheriff tiraspol to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.34, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 6:00 pm over at Sheriff Arena (Tiraspol).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today โ but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sheriff Tiraspol vs Aluminij?
Our selection is 1 โ Sheriff Tiraspol to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is Sheriff Tiraspol's current form?
Sheriff Tiraspol have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aluminij been performing recently?
Aluminij have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.9 goals per game.
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