WON
Tip WON
Shimal 1-0 Baku Sporting
S
Shimal
Home
L
L
L
D
L
2W 1D 7L
▼ Declining
VS
1-0
B
Baku Sporting
Away
D
W
L
D
W
2W 4D 4L
→ Steady
Shimal
30%
Draw
20%
Baku Sporting
50%
H Fair Odds
3.33
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
2
Implied Prob
77.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-28.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Shimal
0
Draws
2
Baku Sporting
2
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Baku Sporting won 2 of 2 meetings.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shimal
Metric
Baku Sporting
0.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
2.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
10%
Clean Sheets
20%
2-1-7
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
2.5
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
S0
0-0
8.6%
0-1
12.9%
0-2
9.7%
0-3
4.9%
0-4
1.8%
0-5
0.6%
S1
1-0
8.2%
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
S2
2-0
3.9%
2-1
5.8%
2-2
4.4%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
S3
3-0
1.2%
3-1
1.9%
3-2
1.4%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
S4
4-0
0.3%
4-1
0.4%
4-2
0.3%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
S5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
5-2
0.1%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
0-1(12.9%)
0-2(9.7%)
1-2(9.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shimal Win
3.33
30%
Draw
5
20%
Baku Sporting Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
12%
Home Win & BTTS No
19%
Draw & BTTS Yes
15%
Draw & BTTS No
23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
12%
Away Win & BTTS No
19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
14%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
17%
Draw & Under 2.5
21%
Away Win & Over 2.5
14%
Away Win & Under 2.5
17%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Shimal0
Baku Sporting1
Baku Sporting4
Shimal1
Recent Form
Shimal
Sabail4
Shimal0
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
Sahdag Qusar1
Shimal0
Shimal0
Zaqatala0
Shimal0
Safa Baku2
Zaqatala3
Shimal4
Shimal3
Cebrayil2
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar1
Difai Agsu3
Shimal1
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
Baku Sporting
Baku Sporting0
Safa Baku0
Baku Sporting3
MOIK Baku1
Sabail1
Baku Sporting0
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
Difai Agsu1
Baku Sporting3
Baku Sporting0
Mingachevir1
Sabail0
Baku Sporting0
Cebrayil1
Baku Sporting2
Baku Sporting2
MOIK Baku0
Safa Baku1
Baku Sporting1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 23rd April 2026, Shimal host Baku Sporting in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Baku Sporting to win as the standout selection.
Shimal arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Baku Sporting are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Shimal, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Baku Sporting's 2, with 0 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: baku sporting to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan 1 Liqa match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.
Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.
Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.
On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.
Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 2, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.29. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shimal vs Baku Sporting?
Our selection is 2 — Baku Sporting to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 49%.
What is Shimal's current form?
Shimal have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baku Sporting been performing recently?
Baku Sporting have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shimal lead with 0 wins versus Baku Sporting's 2, with 0 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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