S
Spain
Home
W
W
W
W
D
6W 4D 0L
→ Steady
VS
—
8:00 pm
—
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
B
Belgium
Away
W
W
W
D
D
7W 3D 0L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
85.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+4.5%
Value detected
Kelly %
31.2%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Spain to win or draw
1.17
Spain Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Spain vs Belgium
Competition: World Cup 2026
Date: Friday, 10th July 2026
KO: 8:00 pm
Pick: 1X (Spain to win or draw)
Odds: 1.17
Confidence: 90%
Also: Spain Clean Sheet (70%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Spain
1
Draws
1
Belgium
9
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
56%
BTTS
56%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Insufficient H2H data.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Spain
Metric
Belgium
1.8
Goals For / Game
3.3
0.4
Goals Against / Game
0.8
70%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-4-0
W — D — L
7-3-0
Win Rate
3.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
S0
0-0
4.3%
0-1
7.9%
0-2
7.3%
0-3
4.5%
0-4
2.1%
0-5
0.8%
S1
1-0
5.6%
1-1
10.3%
1-2
9.5%
1-3
5.9%
1-4
2.7%
1-5
1.0%
S2
2-0
3.6%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
3.8%
2-4
1.8%
2-5
0.7%
S3
3-0
1.6%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.3%
S4
4-0
0.5%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
S5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(10.3%)
2-1(6.7%)
2-2(6.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
16%
Home Win & BTTS No
20%
Draw & BTTS Yes
9%
Draw & BTTS No
12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Away Win & BTTS No
24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
20%
Home Win & Under 2.5
16%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
9%
Away Win & Over 2.5
24%
Away Win & Under 2.5
19%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Belgium0
Spain2
Spain5
Belgium0
Belgium1
Spain2
Belgium0
Spain2
Spain2
Belgium0
Spain1
Belgium1
Belgium1
Spain4
Belgium1
Spain2
Belgium2
Spain1
Recent Form
Spain
Portugal0
Spain1
Spain3
Austria0
Uruguay0
Spain1
Spain4
Saudi Arabia0
Spain0
Cape Verde0
Peru1
Spain3
Spain1
Iraq1
Spain0
Egypt0
Spain3
Serbia0
Spain2
Turkey2
Belgium
USA1
Belgium4
Belgium3
Senegal2
New Zealand1
Belgium5
Belgium0
Iran0
Belgium1
Egypt1
Belgium5
Tunisia0
Croatia0
Belgium2
Mexico1
Belgium1
USA2
Belgium5
Belgium7
Liechtenstein0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 10th July 2026, Spain host Belgium at SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA) in World Cup 2026. We recommend Spain to win or draw as the standout selection.
Spain arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Belgium are travelling well, with a record of 7W 3D 0L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Spain, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Belgium's 1, with 1 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 56% of those meetings.
Our verdict: spain to win or draw at odds of 1.17 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this World Cup 2026 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1X at @1.17, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 8:00 pm over at SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Spain vs Belgium?
Our selection is 1X — Spain to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Spain's current form?
Spain have won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Belgium been performing recently?
Belgium have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Spain lead with 7 wins versus Belgium's 1, with 1 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.
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