S
St Gallen
Home
L
L
W
W
W
6W 1D 3L
→ Steady
VS
—
7:00 pm
—
Kybunpark (St. Gallen)
B
Benfica
Away
W
L
W
D
D
6W 3D 1L
→ Steady
St Gallen
20%
Draw
30%
Benfica
50%
H Fair Odds
5
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
2
Implied Prob
70.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-16.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Benfica to win
1.42
Over 2.5 Goals75%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
St Gallen vs Benfica
Competition: Europa League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 23rd July 2026
KO: 7:00 pm
Pick: 2 (Benfica to win)
Odds: 1.42
Confidence: 54%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
Neutral
No head-to-head data found.
Stats Duel
Comparison
St Gallen
Metric
Benfica
1.8
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-1-3
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
3.4
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
S0
0-0
3.3%
0-1
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
0-3
4.5%
0-4
2.2%
0-5
0.9%
S1
1-0
4.7%
1-1
9.3%
1-2
9.3%
1-3
6.2%
1-4
3.1%
1-5
1.3%
S2
2-0
3.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
2-3
4.4%
2-4
2.2%
2-5
0.9%
S3
3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.1%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
2.0%
3-4
1.0%
3-5
0.4%
S4
4-0
0.5%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
S5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-2(9.3%)
0-1(6.7%)
0-2(6.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
St Gallen Win
5
20%
Draw
3.33
30%
Benfica Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
28%
Home Win & BTTS No
15%
Draw & BTTS Yes
9%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
28%
Away Win & BTTS No
15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
32%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
11%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
32%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
No data found.
Recent Form
St Gallen
St. Gallen0
Norwich3
Lyon6
St. Gallen3
Winterthur0
St. Gallen1
St. Gallen3
Altach2
Lausanne Ouchy0
St. Gallen3
St. Gallen1
Thun1
Basel1
St. Gallen3
Lugano1
St. Gallen2
St. Gallen0
Sion3
Young Boys1
St. Gallen2
Benfica
Benfica2
Villarreal0
Benfica1
Flamengo RJ2
Estoril1
Benfica3
Benfica2
Braga2
Famalicao2
Benfica2
Benfica4
Moreirense1
Sporting CP1
Benfica2
Benfica2
Nacional0
Casa Pia1
Benfica1
Benfica3
Vitoria Guimaraes0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 23rd July 2026, St Gallen host Benfica at Kybunpark (St. Gallen) in Europa League Qualifier. We recommend Benfica to win as the standout selection.
St Gallen arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Benfica are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.
Our verdict: benfica to win at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 2 at @1.42, sitting at roughly 20,30,50% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at Kybunpark (St. Gallen).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for St Gallen vs Benfica?
Our selection is 2 — Benfica to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is St Gallen's current form?
St Gallen have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Benfica been performing recently?
Benfica have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game.
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