WON
Tip WON
Sabah Baku 7-1 Gabala
S
Sabah Baku
Home
W
D
W
W
W
4W 1D 0L
▲ Improving
VS
7-1
G
Gabala
Away
L
D
L
D
L
0W 2D 3L
→ Steady
Sabah Baku
50%
Draw
30%
Gabala
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
76.9%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-14.9%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Sabah Baku
1
Draws
1
Gabala
5
Meetings
2.2
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
20%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Sabah Baku won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sabah Baku
Metric
Gabala
2.6
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
4-1-0
W — D — L
0-2-3
Win Rate
3.3
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
S0
0-0
3.7%
0-1
4.1%
0-2
2.2%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.1%
S1
1-0
8.1%
1-1
8.9%
1-2
4.9%
1-3
1.8%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
S2
2-0
8.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-2
5.4%
2-3
2.0%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
S3
3-0
6.6%
3-1
7.2%
3-2
4.0%
3-3
1.5%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
S4
4-0
3.6%
4-1
4.0%
4-2
2.2%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
S5
5-0
1.6%
5-1
1.7%
5-2
1.0%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.8%)
2-0(8.9%)
1-0(8.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ G=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Sabah Baku Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Gabala Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
37%
Home Win & BTTS No
37%
Draw & BTTS Yes
14%
Draw & BTTS No
14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
37%
Home Win & Under 2.5
37%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
14%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3
Sabah Baku4
⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
⚽ CUP (04.02.26): Sabah Baku0
Gabala0
⚽ PL (03.11.25): Sabah Baku1
Gabala0
⚽ PL (12.05.24): Gabala2
Sabah Baku0
Recent Form
Sabah Baku
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3
Sabah Baku4
⚽ PL (01.03.26): Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
⚽ PL (22.02.26): Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
⚽ PL (08.02.26): Sabah Baku4
Araz1
Gabala
⚽ CUP (05.03.26): Gabala3
Sabah Baku4
⚽ PL (28.02.26): Gabala1
Karvan1
⚽ PL (24.02.26): Gabala0
Turan Tovuz3
⚽ PL (20.02.26): Sumqayit0
Gabala0
⚽ PL (16.02.26): Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Sabah Baku host Gabala in Azerbaijan League. We recommend Sabah Baku to win as the standout selection.
Sabah Baku arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.
Gabala are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 2D 3L across 5 matches.
Historical meetings favour Sabah Baku, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Gabala's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.
Our verdict: sabah baku to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Sabah Baku completely dominates the form charts in the Azerbaijan Premier League, riding an extraordinary twenty-three-game unbeaten streak that breaks domestic statistical models.
Their defensive metrics rank among the absolute best in the division, efficiently choking the life out of visiting attacks and limiting shots on target. Gabala brings a horrific run of form into this contest, languishing near the bottom of the table and consistently failing to generate meaningful attacking data.
Historical head-to-head records at this venue heavily favor Sabah, who routinely dismantle lower-table opposition without breaking a sweat. Form watchers recognize a classic statistical mismatch here.
Sabah meticulously controls possession and generates high-quality chances, while Gabala merely attempts to survive the ninety minutes. The data gap between these two rosters is staggering. Backing Sabah Baku to secure a routine home victory perfectly follows the established form trends for both clubs.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Gabala?
Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Sabah Baku's current form?
Sabah Baku have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Gabala been performing recently?
Gabala have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabah Baku lead with 3 wins versus Gabala's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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