WON Tip WON Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha
A

Al Ahly

Home
D L L L W
4W 3D 3L → Steady
VS
2-1
S
Smouha
Away
L W W L L
6W 0D 4L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 11th April 2026
1
Backing Al Ahly to win
Al Ahly 50%
Draw 30%
Smouha 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 76.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -26.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Ahly to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Ahly vs Smouha Competition: Egypt Premier League Date: Saturday, 11th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Ahly to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 50% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Al Ahly
2
Draws
2
Smouha
10
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Al Ahly won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Ahly
Metric
Smouha
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0.8
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
40%
60%
2.1
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 12.3%
0-1 13.5%
0-2 7.4%
0-3 2.7%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 6.1%
2-1 6.7%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.3%) 2-1(6.7%) 2-0(6.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Ahly Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Smouha Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Ahly
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.0
Smouha
Overall
6.0
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 34%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
07.01.25
Premier League: Al Ahly2
Smouha SC0
08.08.24
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
28.11.23
Premier League: Al Ahly0
Smouha SC0
17.04.23
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly2
17.01.23
Egypt Cup: Al Ahly3
Smouha SC1
25.12.22
Premier League: Al Ahly0
Smouha SC0
29.06.22
Premier League: Smouha SC3
Al Ahly2
27.01.22
League Cup: Smouha SC3
Al Ahly0
25.11.21
Premier League: Al Ahly4
Smouha SC1
Recent Form
Al Ahly
07.04.26
Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra1
Al Ahly1
D
21.03.26
Champions League (QF): Al Ahly2
Espérance Tunis3
L
15.03.26
Champions League (QF): Espérance Tunis1
Al Ahly0
L
09.03.26
Premier League: Tala’ea El Gaish2
Al Ahly1
L
05.03.26
Premier League: Arab Contractors1
Al Ahly3
W
28.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly1
ZED FC1
D
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
W
19.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly1
El Gouna FC0
W
15.02.26
Champions League (GS): Al Ahly0
FAR Rabat0
D
11.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly2
Ismaily SC0
W
Smouha
07.04.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
ENPPI SC2
L
07.03.26
Premier League: Smouha SC3
Modern Sport0
W
01.03.26
Premier League: National Bank of Egypt1
Smouha SC3
W
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
L
16.02.26
Premier League: Al Ittihad1
Smouha SC0
L
11.02.26
Premier League: Zamalek SC1
Smouha SC0
L
04.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC2
Pyramids FC1
W
29.01.26
Premier League: ENPPI SC1
Smouha SC2
W
21.01.26
Premier League: Smouha SC2
Pharco FC0
W
11.01.26
Egypt Cup: Smouha SC1
Haras El Hodood0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, Al Ahly host Smouha in Egypt Premier League. We recommend Al Ahly to win as the standout selection.

Al Ahly arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Smouha are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Ahly, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Smouha's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al ahly to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Egypt Premier League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.31. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahly vs Smouha?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ahly to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Al Ahly's current form?
Al Ahly have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Smouha been performing recently?
Smouha have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahly lead with 6 wins versus Smouha's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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