WON
Tip WON
Aston Villa 4-0 Bologna
A
Aston Villa
Home
D
W
L
W
W
4W 2D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
4-0
B
Bologna
Away
W
L
W
L
W
6W 1D 3L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
83.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+16.7%
Value detected
Kelly %
100%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Aston Villa to win or draw
1.20
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Aston Villa vs Bologna
Competition: UEFA Europa League
Date: Thursday, 16th April 2026
Pick: 1X (Aston Villa to win or draw)
Odds: 1.20
Confidence: 100%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Aston Villa
0
Draws
0
Bologna
3
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Insufficient H2H data.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aston Villa
Metric
Bologna
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
4-2-4
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
2.7
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0
7.1%
0-1
9.9%
0-2
6.9%
0-3
3.2%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
A1
1-0
8.8%
1-1
12.4%
1-2
8.7%
1-3
4.0%
1-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
A2
2-0
5.5%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
5.4%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
A3
3-0
2.3%
3-1
3.2%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
1.1%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
A4
4-0
0.7%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(12.4%)
1-0(8.8%)
2-1(7.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Home Win & BTTS No
16%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Away Win & BTTS No
23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
14%
Home Win & Under 2.5
21%
Draw & Over 2.5
5%
Draw & Under 2.5
8%
Away Win & Over 2.5
21%
Away Win & Under 2.5
31%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
Aston Villa1
Bologna0
Aston Villa2
Bologna0
Recent Form
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest1
Aston Villa1
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
Aston Villa1
Elche2
Aston Villa2
West Ham0
Aston Villa2
Lille0
Manchester United3
Aston Villa1
Lille0
Aston Villa1
Aston Villa1
Chelsea4
Wolves2
Aston Villa0
Aston Villa1
Leeds United1
Bologna
Bologna2
Lecce0
Bologna1
Aston Villa3
Cremonese1
Bologna2
Bologna0
Lazio2
AS Roma3
Bologna4
Sassuolo0
Bologna1
Bologna1
AS Roma1
Bologna1
Verona2
Pisa0
Bologna1
Bologna1
Brann0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Aston Villa host Bologna in UEFA Europa League. We recommend Aston Villa to win or draw as the standout selection.
Aston Villa arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Bologna are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Aston Villa, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Bologna's 0, with 0 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.
Our verdict: aston villa to win or draw at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming UEFA Europa League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.
Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.
Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.
On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.
Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.20. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aston Villa vs Bologna?
Our selection is 1X — Aston Villa to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 100%.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bologna been performing recently?
Bologna have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aston Villa lead with 3 wins versus Bologna's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
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