WON Tip WON Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense
B

Botafogo

Home
W W D D W
5W 2D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
1-0
C
Chapecoense
Away
L D L W D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 21st April 2026
1
Backing Botafogo to win
Botafogo 50%
Draw 30%
Chapecoense 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 69.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -16.9% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Botafogo to win
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Botafogo vs Chapecoense Competition: Copa Do Brasil Date: Tuesday, 21st April 2026 Pick: 1 (Botafogo to win) Odds: 1.43 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Chapecoense
10
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Botafogo won 6 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Botafogo
Metric
Chapecoense
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1.6
0%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
50%
20%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
B0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 6.2%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.8%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
B2
2-0 7.6%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
B3
3-0 4.5%
3-1 5.6%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(8.7%) 2-0(7.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Botafogo Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Chapecoense Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Botafogo
Overall
5.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
3.7
Chapecoense
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Botafogo RJ4
27.11.19
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Botafogo RJ1
27.08.19
 (SA) Botafogo RJ0
Chapecoense-SC0
15.11.18
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Botafogo RJ1
26.07.18
 (SA) Botafogo RJ1
Chapecoense-SC0
11.10.17
 (SA) Botafogo RJ2
Chapecoense-SC1
18.06.17
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Botafogo RJ2
16.11.16
 (SA) Botafogo RJ0
Chapecoense-SC2
24.07.16
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC2
Botafogo RJ1
23.11.14
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC2
Botafogo RJ0
Recent Form
Botafogo
18.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Botafogo RJ - W4
15.04.26
 (COP) Racing Club2
Botafogo RJ - W3
12.04.26
 (SA) Botafogo RJ2
Coritiba - D2
09.04.26
 (COP) Botafogo RJ1
Caracas - D1
05.04.26
 (SA) Vasco1
Botafogo RJ - W2
01.04.26
 (SA) Botafogo RJ3
Mirassol - W2
29.03.26
 (SA) Athletico-PR4
Botafogo RJ - L1
21.03.26
 (SA) Bragantino1
Botafogo RJ - W2
18.03.26
 (SA) Palmeiras2
Botafogo RJ - L1
15.03.26
 (SA) Botafogo RJ0
Flamengo RJ - L3
Chapecoense
18.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Botafogo RJ - L4
16.04.26
 (CSS) Juventude0
Chapecoense-SC - D0
12.04.26
 (SA) Athletico-PR2
Chapecoense-SC - L0
08.04.26
 (CSS) Chapecoense-SC2
Avaí - W1
05.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Vitória - D1
02.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Atlético-MG - L4
28.03.26
 (CSS) Volta Redonda1
Chapecoense-SC - L0
26.03.26
 (CSS) Chapecoense-SC2
São Bernardo - W1
22.03.26
 (SA) Internacional2
Chapecoense-SC - L0
20.03.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Corinthians - D0
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 21st April 2026, Botafogo host Chapecoense in Copa Do Brasil. We recommend Botafogo to win as the standout selection.

Botafogo arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Chapecoense are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Botafogo, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Chapecoense's 3, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: botafogo to win at odds of 1.43 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Copa Do Brasil match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.43. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?
Our selection is 1 — Botafogo to win, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Botafogo's current form?
Botafogo have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Chapecoense been performing recently?
Chapecoense have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Botafogo lead with 6 wins versus Chapecoense's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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