LOST Tip LOST Esperance Tunis 2-2 Zarzis
E

Esperance Tunis

Home
L L D W W
5W 2D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
2-2
Z
Zarzis
Away
W D W L D
0W 6D 4L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 23rd April 2026
1
Backing Esperance Tunis to win
Esperance Tunis 50%
Draw 30%
Zarzis 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 77.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -24.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Esperance Tunis to win
1.29
Under 2.5 Goals75% BTTS — No75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Esperance Tunis vs Zarzis Competition: Tunisian League Date: Thursday, 23rd April 2026 Pick: 1 (Esperance Tunis to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 53% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: BTTS — No (75%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Esperance Tunis
1
Draws
3
Zarzis
10
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Esperance Tunis won 6 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Esperance Tunis
Metric
Zarzis
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.3
0.6
Goals Against / Game
0.9
50%
Clean Sheets
40%
5-2-3
W — D — L
0-6-4
Win Rate
50%
0%
1.6
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Z0
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
Z5
E0
0-0 20.2%
0-1 9.1%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 23.2%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 2.4%
1-3 0.4%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 13.4%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.2%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 5.1%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(23.2%) 2-0(13.4%) 2-1(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   Z=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Esperance Tunis Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Zarzis Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Esperance Tunis
Overall
5.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
8.0
Zarzis
Overall
1.8
Scoring
1.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 42%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 33%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 42%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 33%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.10.25LP1
Zarzis0
Esperance Tunis0
18.05.25CUP
Esperance Tunis3
Zarzis1
19.02.25LP1
Esperance Tunis4
Zarzis2
20.10.24LP1
Zarzis1
Esperance Tunis0
27.04.18LP1
Zarzis1
Esperance Tunis0
29.11.17LP1
Esperance Tunis2
Zarzis0
19.02.17CUP
Esperance Tunis2
Zarzis0
29.05.16LP1
Zarzis1
Esperance Tunis2
30.12.15LP1
Esperance Tunis1
Zarzis2
22.03.15LP1
Esperance Tunis2
Zarzis1
Recent Form
Esperance Tunis
18.04.26CL
Mamelodi Sundowns1
Esperance Tunis0
L
12.04.26CL
Esperance Tunis0
Mamelodi Sundowns1
L
04.04.26LP1
Etoile Sahel0
Esperance Tunis0
D
28.03.26CUP
WS Hamma0
Esperance Tunis5
W
21.03.26CL
Al Ahly2
Esperance Tunis3
W
15.03.26CL
Esperance Tunis1
Al Ahly0
W
07.03.26LP1
Esperance Tunis1
AS Marsa0
W
01.03.26LP1
Olympique Beja0
Esperance Tunis3
W
25.02.26LP1
Metlaoui1
Esperance Tunis1
D
21.02.26LP1
Esperance Tunis1
Stade Tunisien0
W
Zarzis
19.04.26CUP
Monastir1
Zarzis (1 - 3 Pens)1
W
04.04.26LP1
Zarzis0
Stade Tunisien0
D
22.03.26CUP
Zarzis0
Korba (Penalties)0
W
06.03.26LP1
Soliman1
Zarzis0
L
27.02.26LP1
Zarzis1
JS Kairouan1
D
15.02.26LP1
Monastir3
Zarzis0
L
07.02.26LP1
Zarzis0
AS Gabes1
L
31.01.26LP1
Ben Guerdane0
Zarzis0
D
27.01.26LP1
Zarzis0
Club Africain0
D
23.01.26LP1
JS Omrane2
Zarzis1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 23rd April 2026, Esperance Tunis host Zarzis in Tunisian League. We recommend Esperance Tunis to win as the standout selection.

Esperance Tunis arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Zarzis are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 6D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Esperance Tunis, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Zarzis's 3, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: esperance tunis to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Tunisian League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.29. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Esperance Tunis vs Zarzis?
Our selection is 1 — Esperance Tunis to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Esperance Tunis's current form?
Esperance Tunis have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Zarzis been performing recently?
Zarzis have recorded 0 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Esperance Tunis lead with 6 wins versus Zarzis's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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