WON Tip WON Fratria 3-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad
F

Fratria

Home
W D L D D
3W 5D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-0
P
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Away
W L D L D
2W 4D 4L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 23rd May 2026
1
Backing Fratria to win
Fratria 50%
Draw 30%
Pirin Blagoevgrad 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -46.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Fratria
2
Draws
1
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3
Meetings
0.3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Fratria won 0 of the last 3 meetings (2 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Fratria
Metric
Pirin Blagoevgrad
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-5-2
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
30%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
F0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 1.9%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 10.8%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
F3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.8%) 2-1(9.0%) 2-0(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Fratria Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Pirin Blagoevgrad Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Fratria
Overall
4.5
Scoring
6.0
Defence
5.3
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Overall
3.2
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 26%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 16%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 24%
Draw & Under 2.5 24%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.11.252L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Fratria0
15.02.252L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Fratria0
03.08.242L
Fratria0
Pirin Blagoevgrad1
Recent Form
Fratria
15.05.262L
Belasitsa0
Fratria3
W
11.05.262L
Fratria2
Dunav Ruse2
D
04.05.262L
Vihren2
Fratria1
L
26.04.262L
Fratria2
CSKA Sofia II2
D
16.04.262L
Spartak Pleven1
Fratria1
D
09.04.262L
Fratria3
Lok. Gorna0
W
28.03.262L
Fratria3
Minyor Pernik1
W
23.03.262L
Yantra Gabrovo1
Fratria1
D
15.03.262L
Ludogorets II1
Fratria1
D
08.03.262L
Fratria1
Sevlievo4
L
Pirin Blagoevgrad
15.05.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad4
Sevlievo1
W
11.05.262L
Svoge2
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
L
02.05.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Marek0
D
25.04.262L
Etar3
Pirin Blagoevgrad2
L
16.04.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad2
Hebar2
D
09.04.262L
Chernomorets 19192
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
L
04.04.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Ludogorets II0
D
29.03.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad1
Belasitsa0
W
21.03.262L
Dunav Ruse0
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
D
15.03.262L
Pirin Blagoevgrad0
Vihren1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 23rd May 2026, Fratria host Pirin Blagoevgrad in Bulgaria Vtora Liga. We recommend Fratria to win as the standout selection.

Fratria arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pirin Blagoevgrad are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Fratria, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Pirin Blagoevgrad's 1, with 2 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fratria to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Bulgaria Vtora Liga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.24. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Fratria vs Pirin Blagoevgrad?
Our selection is 1 — Fratria to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is Fratria's current form?
Fratria have won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pirin Blagoevgrad been performing recently?
Pirin Blagoevgrad have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Fratria lead with 0 wins versus Pirin Blagoevgrad's 1, with 2 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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