LOST Tip LOST Elva 0-2 Tartu Welco
E

Elva

Home
W W L W L
4W 1D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
0-2
T
Tartu Welco
Away
W W D L W
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Monday, 1st June 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 75.8% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -0.8% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.32
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Elva vs Tartu Welco Competition: Estonia Esiliiga Date: Monday, 1st June 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 75% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Elva
3
Draws
3
Tartu Welco
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Elva
Metric
Tartu Welco
1.8
Goals For / Game
2.4
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
4-1-5
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
40%
60%
3.8
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
E0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 3.5%
0-4 1.8%
0-5 0.8%
E1
1-0 3.8%
1-1 8.0%
1-2 8.4%
1-3 5.9%
1-4 3.1%
1-5 1.3%
E2
2-0 3.2%
2-1 6.8%
2-2 7.1%
2-3 5.0%
2-4 2.6%
2-5 1.1%
E3
3-0 1.8%
3-1 3.9%
3-2 4.0%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.5%
3-5 0.6%
E4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 1.2%
4-4 0.6%
4-5 0.3%
E5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(8.4%) 1-1(8.0%) 2-2(7.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Elva
Overall
4.3
Scoring
6.0
Defence
4.0
Tartu Welco
Overall
6.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 34%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Elva3
27.10.25ESI
Tartu Welco3
Elva2
04.08.25ESI
Elva1
Tartu Welco2
14.06.25ESI
Tartu Welco2
Elva5
15.03.25ESI
Elva3
Tartu Welco1
28.09.24ESI
Elva0
Tartu Welco1
24.08.24ESI
Tartu Welco0
Elva0
02.06.24ESI
Tartu Welco0
Elva0
02.03.24ESI
Elva1
Tartu Welco0
11.09.21ESI
Elva4
Tartu Welco2
Recent Form
Elva
28.05.26ESI
Levadia U211
Elva3
W
24.05.26ESI
Elva3
Tallinna Kalev1
W
16.05.26ESI
Nomme Utd U211
Elva0
L
07.05.26ESI
Elva2
FC Tallinn0
W
02.05.26ESI
Elva2
Nomme Kalju U214
L
27.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Elva3
D
23.04.26ESI
Flora U213
Elva2
L
19.04.26ESI
Elva1
Nomme Utd U213
L
09.04.26ESI
Tallinna Kalev2
Elva1
L
03.04.26ESI
Elva1
Viimsi JK0
W
Tartu Welco
28.05.26ESI
Tartu Welco4
Nomme Kalju U212
W
24.05.26ESI
Maardu0
Tartu Welco1
W
17.05.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Flora U213
D
09.05.26ESI
Tallinna Kalev2
Tartu Welco0
L
01.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Tartu Welco2
W
27.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Elva3
D
23.04.26ESI
Viimsi JK2
Tartu Welco0
L
17.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U212
W
11.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
W
03.04.26ESI
Nomme Utd U211
Tartu Welco3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Monday, 1st June 2026, Elva host Tartu Welco in Estonia Esiliiga. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Elva arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Tartu Welco are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Elva, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Tartu Welco's 3, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Esiliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.32. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Elva vs Tartu Welco?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 75%.
What is Elva's current form?
Elva have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Tartu Welco been performing recently?
Tartu Welco have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Elva lead with 4 wins versus Tartu Welco's 3, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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