WON Tip WON Al Quwa 1-0 Al Karkh
A

Al Quwa

Home
W W W W W
10W 0D 0L → Steady
VS
1-0
A
Al Karkh
Away
D L W W W
4W 3D 3L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 26th March 2026
1
Backing Al Quwa to win
Al Quwa 50%
Draw 30%
Al Karkh 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 64.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +3.1% Value detected
Kelly % 8.7% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
7
Al Quwa
2
Draws
1
Al Karkh
10
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Al Quwa won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Quwa
Metric
Al Karkh
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.5
Goals Against / Game
0.8
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
10-0-0
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
100%
40%
2.3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 9.5%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 14.2%
1-1 12.8%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 9.6%
2-1 8.6%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.2%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 4.3%
3-1 3.9%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.2%) 2-0(9.6%) 2-1(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Quwa Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Al Karkh Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Al Quwa
Overall
10.0
Scoring
6.3
Defence
8.3
Al Karkh
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 39%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
15.09.25
SL: Al Karkh0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
14.03.25
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya0
Al Karkh1
30.10.24
SL: Al Karkh1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
05.05.24
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
Al Karkh0
11.11.23
SL: Al Karkh0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
05.07.23
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Al Karkh1
10.02.23
SL: Al Karkh1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
02.03.22
SL: Al Karkh1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
20.10.21
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
Al Karkh0
23.06.21
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya3
Al Karkh2
Recent Form
Al Quwa
17.03.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya3
Amanat Baghdad1
W
13.03.26
SL: Diyala0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
W
06.03.26
SL: Al Gharraf1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
W
28.02.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Al Najaf0
W
20.02.26
SL: Al Talaba1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
W
13.02.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Newroz1
W
06.02.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Naft Missan1
W
01.02.26
SL: Al Mosul0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1
W
28.01.26
SL: Al Kahraba0
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
W
22.01.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
Al-Qassim0
W
Al Karkh
18.03.26
SL: Al Karkh1
Naft Missan1
D
14.03.26
SL: Al Karkh0
Duhok1
L
06.03.26
SL: Al Naft0
Al Karkh1
W
28.02.26
SL: Al-Qassim0
Al Karkh3
W
21.02.26
SL: Al Karkh3
Al Zawraa1
W
13.02.26
SL: Al Karkh0
Al Talaba2
L
04.02.26
SL: Diyala1
Al Karkh0
L
31.01.26
SL: Al-Karma1
Al Karkh1
D
27.01.26
SL: Al Karkh1
Erbil1
D
22.01.26
SL: Al Karkh3
Newroz0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 26th March 2026, Al Quwa host Al Karkh in Iraq Stars League. We recommend Al Quwa to win as the standout selection.

Al Quwa arrive in strong form, having recorded 10 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Karkh are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 3D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Quwa, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Al Karkh's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al quwa to win at odds of 1.54 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Iraq Stars League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.54. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Quwa vs Al Karkh?
Our selection is 1 — Al Quwa to win, priced at approximately 1.54. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Al Quwa's current form?
Al Quwa have won 10, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Karkh been performing recently?
Al Karkh have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Quwa lead with 7 wins versus Al Karkh's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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