LOST Tip LOST Arsenal W 0-2 Brighton W
A

Arsenal W

Home
L W W W W
9W 0D 1L → Steady
VS
0-2
B
Brighton W
Away
W D L W L
4W 1D 5L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 5th April 2026
1
Backing Arsenal W to win
Arsenal W 60%
Draw 20%
Brighton W 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 82% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Arsenal W to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Arsenal W vs Brighton W Competition: England Women FA Cup Date: Sunday, 5th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Arsenal W to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 78% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Head to Head
Record
10
Arsenal W
0
Draws
0
Brighton W
10
Meetings
3.6
Avg Goals
10%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Arsenal W won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Arsenal W
Metric
Brighton W
2.9
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.3
50%
Clean Sheets
40%
9-0-1
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
90%
40%
3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 4.5%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 10.5%
1-1 9.4%
1-2 4.2%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 11.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.7%
3-1 6.9%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 4.0%
4-1 3.6%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 1.5%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(11.0%) 1-0(10.5%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Arsenal W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Brighton W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Arsenal W
Overall
9.0
Scoring
9.7
Defence
7.7
Brighton W
Overall
4.3
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 44%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 19%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.10.25
WSL: Arsenal1
Brighton0
05.05.25
WSL: Brighton0
Arsenal4
22.01.25
Cup: Brighton0
Arsenal4
08.11.24
WSL: Arsenal5
Brighton0
18.05.24
WSL: Arsenal5
Brighton0
19.11.23
WSL: Brighton0
Arsenal3
10.05.23
WSL: Brighton0
Arsenal4
16.09.22
WSL: Arsenal4
Brighton0
13.03.22
WSL: Brighton0
Arsenal3
27.01.22
WSL: Arsenal2
Brighton1
Recent Form
Arsenal W
01.04.26
UWCL: Chelsea W1
Arsenal W - L (Adv. 3-2 on Agg)0
28.03.26
WSL: Arsenal W5
Tottenham W2
W
24.03.26
UWCL: Arsenal W3
Chelsea W1
W
21.03.26
WSL: Arsenal W5
West Ham W0
W
15.03.26
WSL: London City Lionesses0
Arsenal W2
W
22.02.26
FA Cup: Arsenal W3
Bristol City W0
W
18.02.26
UWCL: Arsenal W3
OH Leuven1
W
11.02.26
UWCL: OH Leuven0
Arsenal W4
W
08.02.26
WSL: Arsenal W1
Manchester City W0
W
01.02.26
WCC: Arsenal W3
Corinthians W2
W
Brighton W
29.03.26
WSL: Leicester City W0
Brighton W1
W
22.03.26
WSL: Brighton W0
Liverpool W0
D
18.03.26
WSL: Chelsea W2
Brighton W1
L
22.02.26
FA Cup: West Ham W1
Brighton W2
W
08.02.26
WSL: West Ham W3
Brighton W2
L
01.02.26
WSL: Brighton W1
London City Lionesses2
L
23.01.26
WSL: Everton W0
Brighton W1
W
18.01.26
FA Cup: Brighton W2
Nottingham Forest W0
W
11.01.26
WSL: Aston Villa W2
Brighton W1
L
14.12.25
WSL: Brighton W0
Chelsea W3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 5th April 2026, Arsenal W host Brighton W in England Women FA Cup. We recommend Arsenal W to win as the standout selection.

Arsenal W arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Brighton W are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Arsenal W, who lead the head-to-head with 10 wins to Brighton W's 0, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 10% of those meetings.

Our verdict: arsenal w to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming England Women FA Cup match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.22. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Arsenal W vs Brighton W?
Our selection is 1 — Arsenal W to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Arsenal W's current form?
Arsenal W have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Brighton W been performing recently?
Brighton W have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Arsenal W lead with 10 wins versus Brighton W's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 10%.
⚠️
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