WON
Tip WON
Atletico Madrid 5-2 Tottenham Hotspur
A
Atletico Madrid
Home
W
L
W
W
W
4W 0D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
5-2
T
Tottenham Hotspur
Away
L
L
L
L
L
0W 0D 5L
→ Steady
Atletico Madrid
50%
Draw
30%
Tottenham Hotspur
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
63.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+4.7%
Value detected
Kelly %
12.8%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Atletico Madrid to win
1.58
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur
Competition: UEFA Champions League
Date: Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Pick: 1 (Atletico Madrid to win)
Odds: 1.58
Confidence: 68%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
0
Tottenham Hotspur
1
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Atletico Madrid won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Atletico Madrid
Metric
Tottenham Hotspur
2.4
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2.6
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-0-1
W — D — L
0-0-5
Win Rate
3.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
A0
0-0
2.5%
0-1
3.0%
0-2
1.8%
0-3
0.7%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.1%
A1
1-0
6.2%
1-1
7.4%
1-2
4.5%
1-3
1.8%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
A2
2-0
7.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
5.6%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
A3
3-0
6.4%
3-1
7.7%
3-2
4.6%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
A4
4-0
4.0%
4-1
4.8%
4-2
2.9%
4-3
1.2%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
2.0%
5-1
2.4%
5-2
1.5%
5-3
0.6%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.3%)
2-0(7.7%)
3-1(7.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ T=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Atletico Madrid Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Tottenham Hotspur Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
70%
Home Win & BTTS No
30%
Draw & BTTS Yes
0%
Draw & BTTS No
0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
80%
Home Win & Under 2.5
20%
Draw & Over 2.5
0%
Draw & Under 2.5
0%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ ICC (Jul 29, 2016): Tottenham0
Atl. Madrid1
Recent Form
Atletico Madrid
⚽ LL (07.03.26): Atl. Madrid3
Real Sociedad2
⚽ CDR (03.03.26): Barcelona3
Atl. Madrid0
⚽ LL (28.02.26): Oviedo0
Atl. Madrid1
⚽ CL (24.02.26): Atl. Madrid4
Club Brugge KV1
⚽ LL (21.02.26): Atl. Madrid4
Espanyol2
Tottenham Hotspur
⚽ PL (05.03.26): Tottenham1
Crystal Palace3
⚽ PL (01.03.26): Fulham2
Tottenham1
⚽ PL (22.02.26): Tottenham1
Arsenal4
⚽ PL (10.02.26): Tottenham1
Newcastle2
⚽ PL (07.02.26): Manchester Utd2
Tottenham0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Atletico Madrid host Tottenham Hotspur in UEFA Champions League. We recommend Atletico Madrid to win as the standout selection.
Atletico Madrid arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.
Tottenham Hotspur are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 0D 5L across 5 matches.
Historical meetings favour Atletico Madrid, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Tottenham Hotspur's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: atletico madrid to win at odds of 1.58 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Diego Simeone’s squad enters this clash boasting a formidable home record in European competitions, consistently overpowering visiting sides with intense tactical discipline.
Form watchers highlight Atletico’s recent dominance, as they string together impressive, high-scoring victories at the Metropolitano and generate outstanding expected goals (xG) metrics. Conversely, Tottenham Hotspur arrives carrying the crushing weight of a horrific losing streak.
The historical data heavily favors the Spanish giants, especially when analysts factor in Spurs’ recent tendency to collapse defensively on the road. Atletico actively exploits these exact vulnerabilities, using relentless high pressure to force critical turnovers in dangerous areas.
Bettors tracking form trajectories immediately spot the massive divergence here; Atletico builds momentum while Tottenham freefalls toward the relegation zone. Backing the home side to capitalize on this stark contrast in form provides a mathematically sound and highly logical approach.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our selection is 1 — Atletico Madrid to win, priced at approximately 1.58. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Atletico Madrid's current form?
Atletico Madrid have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Tottenham Hotspur been performing recently?
Tottenham Hotspur have recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Atletico Madrid lead with 1 wins versus Tottenham Hotspur's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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