WON Tip WON Bayern Munich 4-0 Union Berlin
B

Bayern Munich

Home
W D W W W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Declining
VS
4-0
U
Union Berlin
Away
W L L W L
2W 3D 5L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 21st March 2026
1
Backing Bayern Munich to win
Bayern Munich 60%
Draw 20%
Union Berlin 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 82% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -13% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Bayern Munich to win
1.22
Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin Competition: Bundesliga Date: Saturday, 21st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Bayern Munich to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 69% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Bayern Munich
3
Draws
0
Union Berlin
10
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Bayern Munich won 7 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Bayern Munich
Metric
Union Berlin
3.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.7
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-2-0
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
80%
20%
3.5
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
U0
U1
U2
U3
U4
U5
B0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 3.0%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 7.6%
1-1 7.6%
1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
B2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
B3
3-0 7.9%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 4.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(9.4%) 2-1(9.4%) 3-0(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   U=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Bayern Munich Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Union Berlin Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Bayern Munich
Overall
8.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.3
Union Berlin
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 45%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.12.25
POK: Union Berlin2
Bayern Munich3
08.11.25
BUN: Union Berlin2
Bayern Munich2
15.03.25
BUN: Union Berlin1
Bayern Munich1
02.11.24
BUN: Bayern Munich3
Union Berlin0
20.04.24
BUN: Union Berlin1
Bayern Munich5
24.01.24
BUN: Bayern Munich1
Union Berlin0
26.02.23
BUN: Bayern Munich3
Union Berlin0
03.09.22
BUN: Union Berlin1
Bayern Munich1
19.03.22
BUN: Bayern Munich4
Union Berlin0
30.10.21
BUN: Union Berlin2
Bayern Munich5
Recent Form
Bayern Munich
18.03.26
UCL: Bayern Munich4
Atalanta1
W
14.03.26
BUN: Bayer Leverkusen1
Bayern Munich1
D
10.03.26
UCL: Atalanta1
Bayern Munich6
W
06.03.26
BUN: Bayern Munich4
M’gladbach1
W
28.02.26
BUN: Dortmund2
Bayern Munich3
W
21.02.26
BUN: Bayern Munich3
Frankfurt2
W
14.02.26
BUN: Werder Bremen0
Bayern Munich3
W
11.02.26
POK: Bayern Munich2
RB Leipzig0
W
08.02.26
BUN: Bayern Munich5
Hoffenheim1
W
31.01.26
BUN: Hamburger SV2
Bayern Munich2
D
Union Berlin
15.03.26
BUN: Freiburg0
Union Berlin1
W
08.03.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Werder Bremen4
L
28.02.26
BUN: B. M’gladbach1
Union Berlin0
L
21.02.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Bayer Leverkusen0
W
14.02.26
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Union Berlin2
L
06.02.26
BUN: Union Berlin1
Frankfurt1
D
31.01.26
BUN: Hoffenheim3
Union Berlin1
L
24.01.26
BUN: Union Berlin0
Dortmund3
L
18.01.26
BUN: Stuttgart1
Union Berlin1
D
15.01.26
BUN: Augsburg1
Union Berlin1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Bayern Munich host Union Berlin in Bundesliga. We recommend Bayern Munich to win as the standout selection.

Bayern Munich arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Union Berlin are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bayern Munich, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Union Berlin's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bayern munich to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Bundesliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.22. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin?
Our selection is 1 — Bayern Munich to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 69%.
What is Bayern Munich's current form?
Bayern Munich have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Union Berlin been performing recently?
Union Berlin have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Bayern Munich lead with 7 wins versus Union Berlin's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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