WON Tip WON Kalju 4-0 Kuressaare
K

Kalju

Home
W W W D L
6W 3D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
4-0
K
Kuressaare
Away
W L D W D
4W 2D 4L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 21st March 2026
1
Backing Kalju to win
Kalju 60%
Draw 20%
Kuressaare 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 81.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -11.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Kalju to win
1.23
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Kalju vs Kuressaare Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Saturday, 21st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Kalju to win) Odds: 1.23 Confidence: 70% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
10
Kalju
0
Draws
0
Kuressaare
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Kalju won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kalju
Metric
Kuressaare
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.8
1
Goals Against / Game
2.3
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-3-1
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
60%
40%
3.7
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
K0
0-0 2.6%
0-1 3.6%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 5.9%
1-1 8.2%
1-2 5.7%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.3%
K2
2-0 6.6%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.0%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.3%
K3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 6.9%
3-2 4.8%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.2%
K4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 3.9%
4-2 2.7%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.8%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.6%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 3-1(6.9%) 2-0(6.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kalju Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Kuressaare Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kalju
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.7
Kuressaare
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.10.25
ML: FC Kuressaare0
Nõmme Kalju1
31.08.25
ML: Nõmme Kalju2
FC Kuressaare0
18.05.25
ML: Nõmme Kalju4
FC Kuressaare0
12.04.25
ML: FC Kuressaare0
Nõmme Kalju2
02.11.24
ML: FC Kuressaare1
Nõmme Kalju2
18.08.24
ML: Nõmme Kalju5
FC Kuressaare1
18.05.24
ML: Nõmme Kalju3
FC Kuressaare0
02.03.24
ML: FC Kuressaare0
Nõmme Kalju6
26.09.23
ML: FC Kuressaare0
Nõmme Kalju2
27.08.23
ML: Nõmme Kalju4
FC Kuressaare1
Recent Form
Kalju
15.03.26
ML: Flora0
Nõmme Kalju1
W
08.03.26
ML: Tammeka0
Nõmme Kalju1
W
28.02.26
SC: Flora1
Nõmme Kalju3
W
21.02.26
CF: Nõmme Kalju1
Super Nova1
D
14.02.26
CF: Paide2
Nõmme Kalju1
L
11.02.26
CF: Nõmme Kalju2
Tukums 20002
D
07.02.26
CF: Jelgava0
Nõmme Kalju2
W
30.01.26
CF: Nõmme Kalju1
RFS1
L
28.01.26
CF: FK Liepaja3
Nõmme Kalju5
W
23.01.26
CF: Maardu0
Nõmme Kalju5
W
Kuressaare
14.03.26
ML: FC Kuressaare3
Tammeka2
W
08.03.26
ML: Levadia2
FC Kuressaare0
L
21.02.26
CF: FC Kuressaare2
Narva2
D
14.02.26
CF: FC Kuressaare2
Tallinna Kalev0
W
07.02.26
CF: FC Kuressaare3
Nõmme Utd3
D
31.01.26
CF: Pärnu JK Vaprus9
FC Kuressaare2
L
24.01.26
CF: Viimsi JK3
FC Kuressaare2
L
29.11.25
ML: FC Kuressaare2
Viimsi JK0
W
22.11.25
ML: Viimsi JK0
FC Kuressaare1
W
08.11.25
ML: Tallinna Kalev2
FC Kuressaare1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Kalju host Kuressaare in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Kalju to win as the standout selection.

Kalju arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kuressaare are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kalju, who lead the head-to-head with 10 wins to Kuressaare's 0, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kalju to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Meistriliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.23. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kalju vs Kuressaare?
Our selection is 1 — Kalju to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Kalju's current form?
Kalju have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kuressaare been performing recently?
Kuressaare have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kalju lead with 10 wins versus Kuressaare's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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