WON Tip WON Freiburg 3-0 Celta Vigo
F

Freiburg

Home
L W W L L
4W 1D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
3-0
C
Celta Vigo
Away
W L W D D
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 9th April 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +12.8% Value detected
Kelly % 51.6% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Freiburg vs Celta Vigo Competition: UEFA Europa League Date: Thursday, 9th April 2026 Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 88% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Freiburg
Metric
Celta Vigo
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
0%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-1-5
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
40%
60%
3.2
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
F0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 7.5%
0-2 6.6%
0-3 3.8%
0-4 1.7%
0-5 0.6%
F1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 10.5%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 5.4%
1-4 2.3%
1-5 0.8%
F2
2-0 4.2%
2-1 7.4%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
F3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.3%
F4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.5%) 1-2(9.2%) 0-1(7.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Freiburg
Overall
4.3
Scoring
5.3
Defence
4.3
Celta Vigo
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 12%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Freiburg
04.04.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg2
Bayern Munich3
L
22.03.26
Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli1
SC Freiburg2
W
19.03.26
Europa League (R16): SC Freiburg5
KRC Genk1
W
15.03.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg0
Union Berlin1
L
12.03.26
Europa League (R16): KRC Genk1
SC Freiburg0
L
07.03.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg3
Bayer Leverkusen3
D
01.03.26
Bundesliga: Eintracht Frankfurt2
SC Freiburg0
L
22.02.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg2
B. Mönchengladbach1
W
14.02.26
Bundesliga: TSG Hoffenheim3
SC Freiburg0
L
10.02.26
DFB-Pokal (QF): Hertha BSC1
SC Freiburg (AET)2
W
Celta Vigo
05.04.26
La Liga: Valencia CF2
Celta Vigo3
W
22.03.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo3
Deportivo Alavés4
L
19.03.26
Europa League (R16): Olympique Lyon0
Celta Vigo2
W
15.03.26
La Liga: Real Betis1
Celta Vigo1
D
12.03.26
Europa League (R16): Celta Vigo1
Olympique Lyon1
D
06.03.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
L
01.03.26
La Liga: Girona FC1
Celta Vigo2
W
26.02.26
Europa League (KO): Celta Vigo1
PAOK FC0
W
22.02.26
La Liga: Celta Vigo2
RCD Mallorca0
W
19.02.26
Europa League (KO): PAOK FC1
Celta Vigo2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 9th April 2026, Freiburg host Celta Vigo in UEFA Europa League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Freiburg arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Celta Vigo are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming UEFA Europa League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 1.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.33. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Freiburg vs Celta Vigo?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 88%.
What is Freiburg's current form?
Freiburg have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Celta Vigo been performing recently?
Celta Vigo have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game.
⚠️
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