WON Tip WON Levadia 2-1 Parnu JK Vaprus
L

Levadia

Home
D D W W L
4W 4D 2L → Steady
VS
2-1
P
Parnu JK Vaprus
Away
L L L W W
4W 0D 6L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Wednesday, 8th April 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 71.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +7.6% Value detected
Kelly % 26.5% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Wednesday, 8th April 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 79% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Levadia
3
Draws
1
Parnu JK Vaprus
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Levadia
Metric
Parnu JK Vaprus
1.9
Goals For / Game
2.4
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.4
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-4-2
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
40%
40%
4.1
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
L0
0-0 1.7%
0-1 3.2%
0-2 3.2%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.4%
L1
1-0 3.6%
1-1 7.0%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 4.4%
1-4 2.2%
1-5 0.8%
L2
2-0 3.8%
2-1 7.5%
2-2 7.3%
2-3 4.7%
2-4 2.3%
2-5 0.9%
L3
3-0 2.8%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 5.2%
3-3 3.4%
3-4 1.7%
3-5 0.6%
L4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 2.9%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.8%
4-4 0.9%
4-5 0.4%
L5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 1.2%
5-3 0.8%
5-4 0.4%
5-5 0.2%
Top Scores 2-1(7.5%) 2-2(7.3%) 1-1(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Levadia
Overall
5.2
Scoring
6.3
Defence
5.0
Parnu JK Vaprus
Overall
4.0
Scoring
8.0
Defence
2.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 28%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.01.26
Friendly: FCI Levadia3
Pärnu JK Vaprus2
26.10.25
Meistriliiga: Pärnu JK Vaprus1
FCI Levadia3
22.08.25
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia1
Pärnu JK Vaprus3
28.05.25
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia2
Pärnu JK Vaprus2
15.03.25
Meistriliiga: Pärnu JK Vaprus1
FCI Levadia2
22.09.24
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia3
Pärnu JK Vaprus1
10.08.24
Meistriliiga: Pärnu JK Vaprus1
FCI Levadia4
19.05.24
Meistriliiga: Pärnu JK Vaprus0
FCI Levadia2
20.04.24
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia1
Pärnu JK Vaprus1
01.11.23
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia0
Pärnu JK Vaprus0
Recent Form
Levadia
04.04.26
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia1
FC Nõmme United1
D
22.03.26
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia2
Paide Linnameeskond2
D
15.03.26
Meistriliiga: Harju JK Laagri1
FCI Levadia3
W
08.03.26
Meistriliiga: FCI Levadia2
FC Kuressaare0
W
14.02.26
Friendly: FC Flora1
FCI Levadia0
L
08.02.26
Friendly: FCI Levadia4
JK Tammeka Tartu2
W
31.01.26
Friendly: FCI Levadia0
JK Narva Trans0
D
24.01.26
Friendly: FCI Levadia3
Pärnu JK Vaprus2
W
18.01.26
Friendly: FCI Levadia2
FC Nõmme United4
L
08.11.25
Meistriliiga: Harju JK Laagri2
FCI Levadia2
D
Parnu JK Vaprus
04.04.26
Meistriliiga: Pärnu JK Vaprus0
Harju JK Laagri2
L
21.03.26
Meistriliiga: JK Narva Trans2
Pärnu JK Vaprus1
L
14.03.26
Meistriliiga: FC Nõmme United7
Pärnu JK Vaprus1
L
10.03.26
Cup Estonia: Pärnu JK Vaprus2
Tartu JK Welco1
W
07.03.26
Meistriliiga: Pärnu JK Vaprus3
Paide Linnameeskond2
W
15.02.26
Friendly: Pärnu JK Vaprus0
JK Narva Trans2
L
08.02.26
Friendly: JK Tallinna Kalev0
Pärnu JK Vaprus6
W
04.02.26
Friendly: Pärnu JK Vaprus0
FK Metta3
L
31.01.26
Friendly: Pärnu JK Vaprus9
FC Kuressaare2
W
24.01.26
Friendly: FCI Levadia3
Pärnu JK Vaprus2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 8th April 2026, Levadia host Parnu JK Vaprus in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Levadia arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Parnu JK Vaprus are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Levadia, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Parnu JK Vaprus's 1, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Meistriliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.40. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 79%.
What is Levadia's current form?
Levadia have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Parnu JK Vaprus been performing recently?
Parnu JK Vaprus have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Levadia lead with 6 wins versus Parnu JK Vaprus's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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