WON Tip WON Lyon 0-2 Celta Vigo
L

Lyon

Home
D D D L L
4W 3D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
0-2
C
Celta Vigo
Away
D D L W W
4W 4D 2L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 19th March 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob 78.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +4.3% Value detected
Kelly % 20% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Lyon
1
Draws
1
Celta Vigo
2
Meetings
1.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Neutral Over 1.5 in 50% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lyon
Metric
Celta Vigo
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate
40%
40%
2.4
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
L0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 11.4%
0-2 6.9%
0-3 2.8%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
L1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.2%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 6.3%
2-1 7.6%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 2.4%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.7%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(13.2%) 0-1(11.4%) 1-0(11.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lyon
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.3
Celta Vigo
Overall
5.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 18%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.03.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
29.07.23
CF: Celta Vigo1
Lyon0
Recent Form
Lyon
15.03.26
L1: Le Havre0
Lyon0
D
12.03.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
D
08.03.26
L1: Lyon1
Paris FC1
D
05.03.26
CDF: Lyon2
Lens3
L
01.03.26
L1: Marseille3
Lyon2
L
22.02.26
L1: Strasbourg3
Lyon1
L
15.02.26
L1: Lyon2
Nice0
W
07.02.26
L1: Nantes0
Lyon1
W
04.02.26
CDF: Lyon2
Laval0
W
01.02.26
L1: Lyon1
Lille0
W
Celta Vigo
15.03.26
LL: Betis1
Celta Vigo1
D
12.03.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
Lyon1
D
06.03.26
LL: Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
L
01.03.26
LL: Girona1
Celta Vigo2
W
26.02.26
EL: Celta Vigo1
PAOK0
W
22.02.26
LL: Celta Vigo2
Mallorca0
W
19.02.26
EL: PAOK1
Celta Vigo2
W
14.02.26
LL: Espanyol2
Celta Vigo2
D
06.02.26
LL: Celta Vigo1
Osasuna2
L
01.02.26
LL: Getafe0
Celta Vigo0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 19th March 2026, Lyon host Celta Vigo in UEFA Europa League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Lyon arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Celta Vigo are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lyon, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Celta Vigo's 1, with 1 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.27 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming UEFA Europa League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team. Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now. Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong. On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold. Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 1.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at 1.27. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lyon vs Celta Vigo?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 83%.
What is Lyon's current form?
Lyon have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Celta Vigo been performing recently?
Celta Vigo have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lyon lead with 0 wins versus Celta Vigo's 1, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.