WON Tip WON Spartak Varna 1-5 Ludogorets
S

Spartak Varna

Home
L L W L D
3W 3D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
1-5
L
Ludogorets
Away
W W W D L
7W 1D 2L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 19th March 2026
2
Backing Ludogorets to win
Spartak Varna 20%
Draw 30%
Ludogorets 50%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 80% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -14% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Spartak Varna
1
Draws
7
Ludogorets
8
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
63%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Ludogorets won 7 of 8 meetings.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Spartak Varna
Metric
Ludogorets
1
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.3
Goals Against / Game
0.8
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-3-4
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
30%
70%
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
S0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 13.6%
0-2 10.2%
0-3 5.1%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.6%
S1
1-0 8.2%
1-1 12.3%
1-2 9.2%
1-3 4.6%
1-4 1.7%
1-5 0.5%
S2
2-0 3.7%
2-1 5.5%
2-2 4.1%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
S3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 1.7%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(13.6%) 0-2(10.2%) 1-2(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Spartak Varna Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Ludogorets Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Spartak Varna
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.7
Ludogorets
Overall
7.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 13%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Away Win & BTTS No 29%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 11%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 32%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.10.25
1L: Ludogorets1
Spartak Varna1
19.04.25
1L: Ludogorets2
Spartak Varna1
10.11.24
1L: Spartak Varna1
Ludogorets3
04.04.23
CUP: Ludogorets2
Spartak Varna1
11.02.23
1L: Spartak Varna1
Ludogorets2
29.07.22
1L: Ludogorets5
Spartak Varna0
07.02.22
CF: Ludogorets4
Spartak Varna0
23.09.21
CUP: Spartak Varna0
Ludogorets1
Recent Form
Spartak Varna
14.03.26
1L: Spartak Varna1
CSKA 1948 Sofia2
L
06.03.26
1L: Slavia Sofia4
Spartak Varna0
L
03.03.26
1L: Spartak Varna1
Montana0
W
27.02.26
1L: Arda1
Spartak Varna0
L
21.02.26
1L: Lok. Plovdiv1
Spartak Varna1
D
13.02.26
1L: Spartak Varna2
Lok. Sofia2
D
07.02.26
1L: Cherno More0
Spartak Varna0
D
31.01.26
CF: Spartak Varna2
Minyor Pernik1
W
28.01.26
CF: Botev Plovdiv1
Spartak Varna0
L
24.01.26
CF: Dunav Ruse1
Spartak Varna3
W
Ludogorets
14.03.26
1L: Ludogorets3
CSKA Sofia0
W
09.03.26
1L: Montana0
Ludogorets3
W
05.03.26
1L: Ludogorets1
Levski Sofia0
W
02.03.26
1L: Ludogorets1
Lok. Plovdiv1
D
26.02.26
EL: Ferencvaros2
Ludogorets0
L
23.02.26
1L: Botev Plovdiv2
Ludogorets1
L
19.02.26
EL: Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros1
W
15.02.26
1L: Ludogorets2
Beroe1
W
11.02.26
CUP: Ludogorets1
Levski Sofia0
W
07.02.26
1L: Lok. Sofia1
Ludogorets3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 19th March 2026, Spartak Varna host Ludogorets in Bulgaria EFBET League. We recommend Ludogorets to win as the standout selection.

Spartak Varna arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ludogorets are travelling well, with a record of 7W 1D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Spartak Varna, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Ludogorets's 7, with 1 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: ludogorets to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Bulgaria EFBET League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team. Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now. Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong. On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold. Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 2, especially with the fantastic value sitting at 1.25. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our selection is 2 — Ludogorets to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Spartak Varna's current form?
Spartak Varna have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ludogorets been performing recently?
Ludogorets have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Spartak Varna lead with 0 wins versus Ludogorets's 7, with 1 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
⚠️
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