WON Tip WON Parnu 2-1 Tartu Welco
P

Parnu

Home
W L W L W
3W 0D 2L → Steady
VS
2-1
T
Tartu Welco
Away
W D L L L
1W 1D 3L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 10th March 2026
1
Backing Parnu to win
Parnu 50%
Draw 30%
Tartu Welco 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -14% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Parnu to win
1.25
Over 2.5 Goals90% Over 1.5 Goals100%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Parnu vs Tartu Welco Competition: Estonian Cup Date: Tuesday, 10th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Parnu to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 66% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (90%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (100%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Parnu
0
Draws
0
Tartu Welco
4
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Parnu won 4 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Parnu
Metric
Tartu Welco
3.6
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.8
Goals Against / Game
2.8
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
3-0-2
W — D — L
1-1-3
Win Rate
60%
20%
4.7
Avg Goals
100%
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 0.9%
0-1 1.4%
0-2 1.0%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 2.9%
1-1 4.4%
1-2 3.3%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.2%
P2
2-0 4.7%
2-1 7.0%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.3%
P3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 7.5%
3-2 5.6%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.1%
3-5 0.3%
P4
4-0 4.0%
4-1 6.0%
4-2 4.5%
4-3 2.2%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.3%
P5
5-0 2.5%
5-1 3.8%
5-2 2.9%
5-3 1.4%
5-4 0.5%
5-5 0.2%
Top Scores 3-1(7.5%) 2-1(7.0%) 4-1(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Parnu Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Tartu Welco Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Parnu
Overall
6.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
4.0
Tartu Welco
Overall
2.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
0.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Home Win & BTTS No 40%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 60%
Home Win & Under 2.5 7%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 2%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ ESI (19.10.19): Parnu JK Vaprus3
Tartu Welco0
⚽ ESI (04.07.19): Tartu Welco1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
⚽ ESI (09.05.19): Parnu JK Vaprus5
Tartu Welco1
⚽ ESI (04.04.19): Tartu Welco0
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Recent Form
Parnu
⚽ ML (07.03.26): Parnu JK Vaprus3
Paide2
⚽ CF (15.02.26): Parnu JK Vaprus0
Narva2
⚽ CF (08.02.26): Tallinna Kalev0
Parnu JK Vaprus6
⚽ CF (04.02.26): Parnu JK Vaprus0
Metta3
⚽ CF (31.01.26): Parnu JK Vaprus9
Kuressaare2
Tartu Welco
⚽ ESI (05.03.26): Tartu Welco3
Tallinna Kalev0
⚽ CF (25.02.26): Narva2
Tartu Welco2
⚽ CF (21.02.26): Tartu Welco0
Metta4
⚽ CF (24.01.26): Harju JK Laagri3
Tartu Welco0
⚽ CF (14.01.26): Paide5
Tartu Welco1
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Parnu host Tartu Welco in Estonian Cup. We recommend Parnu to win as the standout selection.

Parnu arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Tartu Welco are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 3L across 5 matches.

Historical meetings favour Parnu, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Tartu Welco's 0, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: parnu to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Parnu JK Vaprus brings top-flight form and elite physical conditioning into this quarter-final cup clash, giving them a massive statistical advantage before a ball is even kicked.

Playing in the Meistriliiga ensures they maintain a significantly higher physical baseline, passing accuracy, and speed of execution than their opponents.

Tartu JK Welco attempts to bridge the gap using momentum from the lower divisions, but their underlying data rarely translates effectively against premier opposition.

Historical cup matchups strongly favor the top-tier hosts, who use these specific fixtures to boost their attacking metrics and build squad confidence. Parnu will immediately dictate the pace, forcing Tartu into a deep defensive block and dominating the possession statistics.

The visitors will eventually tire under the constant physical strain. Backing Parnu to secure a comfortable home victory relies purely on the massive form and divisional gaps separating the two organizations.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Parnu vs Tartu Welco?
Our selection is 1 — Parnu to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Parnu's current form?
Parnu have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Tartu Welco been performing recently?
Tartu Welco have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Parnu lead with 4 wins versus Tartu Welco's 0, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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