P
Pyunik Yerevan
Home
W
L
D
W
D
4W 3D 3L
▼ Declining
VS
—
5:00 pm
—
Junior Sport Stadium (Yerevan)
M
Marsaxlokk
Away
L
L
W
W
W
5W 2D 3L
▼ Declining
Pyunik Yerevan
60%
Draw
20%
Marsaxlokk
20%
H Fair Odds
1.67
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
82.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-22.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Pyunik Yerevan to win
1.21
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk
Competition: Conference League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 16th July 2026
KO: 5:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Pyunik Yerevan to win)
Odds: 1.21
Confidence: 60%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Pyunik Yerevan
0
Draws
0
Marsaxlokk
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Pyunik Yerevan won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Pyunik Yerevan
Metric
Marsaxlokk
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.6
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-3-3
W — D — L
5-2-3
Win Rate
2.6
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
P0
0-0
7.8%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
5.2%
0-3
2.0%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
P1
1-0
10.9%
1-1
12.6%
1-2
7.2%
1-3
2.8%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
P2
2-0
7.7%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
5.1%
2-3
1.9%
2-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
P3
3-0
3.6%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.4%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
P4
4-0
1.3%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
P5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(10.9%)
2-1(8.8%)
2-0(7.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
P=Home goals ↓ M=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Pyunik Yerevan Win
1.67
60%
Draw
5
20%
Marsaxlokk Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Home Win & BTTS No
16%
Draw & BTTS Yes
12%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
24%
Away Win & BTTS No
19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
19%
Home Win & Under 2.5
16%
Draw & Over 2.5
12%
Draw & Under 2.5
10%
Away Win & Over 2.5
24%
Away Win & Under 2.5
19%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Marsaxlokk0
Pyunik Yerevan3
Recent Form
Pyunik Yerevan
Marsaxlokk0
Pyunik Yerevan3
Corvinul2
Pyunik Yerevan0
Aluminij2
Pyunik Yerevan2
Pyunik Yerevan2
Van1
Pyunik Yerevan0
Noah0
FC Gandzasar0
Pyunik Yerevan2
Pyunik Yerevan2
BKMA0
Ararat-Armenia1
Pyunik Yerevan0
Noah0
Pyunik Yerevan0
Pyunik Yerevan2
Urartu1
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk0
Pyunik Yerevan3
Floriana2
Marsaxlokk1
Marsaxlokk2
Hamrun1
Marsaxlokk3
Naxxar2
Marsaxlokk1
Valletta0
Marsaxlokk2
Gzira1
Marsaxlokk1
Floriana3
Marsaxlokk3
Hamrun2
Marsaxlokk1
Valletta1
Marsaxlokk1
Naxxar1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Pyunik Yerevan host Marsaxlokk at Junior Sport Stadium (Yerevan) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend Pyunik Yerevan to win as the standout selection.
Pyunik Yerevan arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Marsaxlokk are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 2D 3L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Pyunik Yerevan, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Marsaxlokk's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: pyunik yerevan to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Conference League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.21, sitting at roughly 60,20,20% in our model. The match gets going at 5:00 pm over at Junior Sport Stadium (Yerevan).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pyunik Yerevan vs Marsaxlokk?
Our selection is 1 — Pyunik Yerevan to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Pyunik Yerevan's current form?
Pyunik Yerevan have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Marsaxlokk been performing recently?
Marsaxlokk have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pyunik Yerevan lead with 1 wins versus Marsaxlokk's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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