V
Vestri
Home
L
L
D
D
W
4W 2D 4L
โ Steady
VS
โ
9:00 pm
โ
Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass (รsafjรถrรฐur)
Q
Qarabag
Away
W
L
L
W
W
6W 1D 3L
โ Steady
Implied Prob
70.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+7.6%
Value detected
Kelly %
25.6%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 โ over 2.5 goals
1.42
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Vestri vs Qarabag
Competition: Europa League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 16th July 2026
KO: 9:00 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.42
Confidence: 78%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Vestri
0
Draws
1
Qarabag
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Vestri
Metric
Qarabag
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.5
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.5
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-2-4
W โ D โ L
6-1-3
Win Rate
3.5
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Q0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
V0
0-0
3.0%
0-1
6.2%
0-2
6.4%
0-3
4.3%
0-4
2.2%
0-5
0.9%
V1
1-0
4.4%
1-1
9.0%
1-2
9.2%
1-3
6.3%
1-4
3.2%
1-5
1.3%
V2
2-0
3.2%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.7%
2-3
4.6%
2-4
2.3%
2-5
1.0%
V3
3-0
1.5%
3-1
3.2%
3-2
3.2%
3-3
2.2%
3-4
1.1%
3-5
0.5%
V4
4-0
0.6%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
1.2%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.2%
V5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-2(9.2%)
1-1(9.0%)
2-2(6.7%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
V=Home goals โ Q=Away โ
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Home Win & BTTS No
18%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
26%
Away Win & BTTS No
26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
23%
Home Win & Under 2.5
12%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
5%
Away Win & Over 2.5
34%
Away Win & Under 2.5
18%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Qarabag3
Vestri0
Recent Form
Vestri
Vestri2
Fylkir5
Qarabag3
Vestri0
Grindavik0
Vestri0
Throttur1
Vestri1
Vestri2
Afturelding0
Vestri3
Aegir2
Leiknir1
Vestri0
Vestri5
Volsungur1
IR Reykjavik0
Vestri1
Vestri0
Njardvik3
Qarabag
Qarabag3
Vestri0
Ferencvaros1
Qarabag0
Qarabag2
FC Kharkiv6
Tirol0
Qarabag4
Sumqayit3
Qarabag4
Qarabag3
Imisli FK0
Gabala1
Qarabag1
Qarabag2
Turan Tovuz1
Neftci Baku2
Qarabag1
Neftci Baku1
Qarabag5
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Vestri host Qarabag at Kerecis Stadium - artificial grass (รsafjรถrรฐur) in Europa League Qualifier. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Vestri arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Qarabag are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Vestri, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Qarabag's 1, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.42, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 9:00 pm over at Kerecis Stadium – artificial grass (รsafjรถrรฐur).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today โ but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Vestri vs Qarabag?
Our selection is Over 2.5 โ over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Vestri's current form?
Vestri have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Qarabag been performing recently?
Qarabag have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Vestri lead with 0 wins versus Qarabag's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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