WON Tip WON Sabah Baku 3-1 Sumqayit
S

Sabah Baku

Home
W W W D W
7W 3D 0L ▼ Declining
VS
3-1
S
Sumqayit
Away
L D L L D
1W 3D 6L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 19th March 2026
1
Backing Sabah Baku to win
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
5
Sabah Baku
4
Draws
1
Sumqayit
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral Sabah Baku won 5 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Sabah Baku
Metric
Sumqayit
3.1
Goals For / Game
0.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-3-0
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
70%
10%
3
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 4.0%
0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 8.8%
1-2 3.5%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 12.1%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 8.8%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 4.9%
4-1 3.9%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 2.1%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(12.1%) 1-0(11.0%) 2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Sabah Baku
Overall
7.9
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.7
Sumqayit
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 14%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.12.25
PL: Sumqayit1
Sabah Baku3
28.09.25
PL: Sabah Baku1
Sumqayit1
29.03.25
PL: Sumqayit3
Sabah Baku3
27.02.25
CUP: Sumqayit0
Sabah Baku4
05.02.25
CUP: Sabah Baku0
Sumqayit0
25.01.25
PL: Sabah Baku0
Sumqayit0
03.11.24
PL: Sumqayit1
Sabah Baku0
25.08.24
PL: Sabah Baku3
Sumqayit1
18.05.24
PL: Sabah Baku2
Sumqayit0
17.03.24
PL: Sumqayit1
Sabah Baku2
Recent Form
Sabah Baku
14.03.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Sabah Baku5
W
10.03.26
PL: Sabah Baku7
Gabala1
W
05.03.26
CUP: Gabala3
Sabah Baku (7-5 pens)3
L
01.03.26
PL: Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
D
22.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
W
16.02.26
PL: Gabala0
Sabah Baku1
W
08.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku4
Araz1
W
04.02.26
CUP: Sabah Baku0
Gabala0
D
31.01.26
PL: Zira1
Sabah Baku3
W
25.01.26
PL: Sabah Baku4
Karvan1
W
Sumqayit
13.03.26
PL: Sumqayit0
Shamakhi1
L
07.03.26
PL: Karvan1
Sumqayit1
D
03.03.26
CUP: Zira2
Sumqayit0
L
27.02.26
PL: Kapaz3
Sumqayit0
L
20.02.26
PL: Sumqayit0
Gabala0
D
15.02.26
PL: Araz1
Sumqayit0
L
08.02.26
PL: Sumqayit2
Zira3
L
04.02.26
CUP: Sumqayit0
Zira0
D
30.01.26
PL: Karvan0
Sumqayit2
W
25.01.26
PL: Turan Tovuz2
Sumqayit1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 19th March 2026, Sabah Baku host Sumqayit in Azerbaijan League. We recommend Sabah Baku to win as the standout selection.

Sabah Baku arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Sumqayit are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sabah Baku, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Sumqayit's 1, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sabah baku to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team. Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now. Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong. On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold. Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at 1.26. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Sumqayit?
Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Sabah Baku's current form?
Sabah Baku have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Sumqayit been performing recently?
Sumqayit have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabah Baku lead with 5 wins versus Sumqayit's 1, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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