T
Thun
Home
L
W
D
L
D
2W 3D 5L
▼ Declining
VS
—
7:30 pm
—
Stockhorn Arena (Thun)
Y
Young Boys
Away
W
W
W
W
D
6W 2D 2L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
72.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+2.5%
Value detected
Kelly %
9.2%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Thun vs Young Boys
Competition: Swiss Super League
Date: Saturday, 1st August 2026
KO: 7:30 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.38
Confidence: 75%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Thun
0
Draws
7
Young Boys
10
Meetings
4.9
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Thun
Metric
Young Boys
1.9
Goals For / Game
3.1
2.4
Goals Against / Game
1.4
0%
Clean Sheets
40%
2-3-5
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
4.4
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
T0
0-0
1.2%
0-1
3.4%
0-2
4.6%
0-3
4.3%
0-4
2.9%
0-5
1.6%
T1
1-0
2.0%
1-1
5.6%
1-2
7.7%
1-3
7.0%
1-4
4.8%
1-5
2.7%
T2
2-0
1.7%
2-1
4.6%
2-2
6.3%
2-3
5.8%
2-4
4.0%
2-5
2.2%
T3
3-0
0.9%
3-1
2.5%
3-2
3.5%
3-3
3.2%
3-4
2.2%
3-5
1.2%
T4
4-0
0.4%
4-1
1.0%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
1.3%
4-4
0.9%
4-5
0.5%
T5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.3%
5-5
0.2%
Top Scores
1-2(7.7%)
1-3(7.0%)
2-2(6.3%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
T=Home goals ↓ Y=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
13%
Home Win & BTTS No
6%
Draw & BTTS Yes
17%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
40%
Away Win & BTTS No
17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
12%
Home Win & Under 2.5
7%
Draw & Over 2.5
16%
Draw & Under 2.5
8%
Away Win & Over 2.5
37%
Away Win & Under 2.5
20%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Thun3
Young Boys8
Young Boys1
Thun2
Thun4
Young Boys1
Young Boys4
Thun2
Young Boys0
Thun2
Young Boys4
Thun0
Thun0
Young Boys5
Young Boys2
Thun0
Young Boys6
Thun1
Young Boys4
Thun0
Recent Form
Thun
Din. Zagreb3
Thun - L (AET)2
Luzern1
Thun3
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
Thun1
Mannheim2
Thun1
Elversberg1
Thun6
Xamax2
St. Gallen1
Thun1
Thun3
Young Boys8
Sion2
Thun0
Basel3
Thun1
Young Boys
Young Boys4
Sion2
Young Boys5
Etoile-Carouge0
Plzen3
Young Boys5
FC Kharkiv0
Young Boys2
A. Lustenau0
Young Boys0
Young Boys3
Sion3
Thun3
Young Boys8
Young Boys3
Basel0
Lugano1
Young Boys0
Young Boys1
St. Gallen2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 1st August 2026, Thun host Young Boys at Stockhorn Arena (Thun) in Swiss Super League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Thun arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Young Boys are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Thun, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Young Boys's 7, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Swiss Super League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.38, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 7:30 pm over at Stockhorn Arena (Thun).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Thun vs Young Boys?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 75%.
What is Thun's current form?
Thun have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Young Boys been performing recently?
Young Boys have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Thun lead with 3 wins versus Young Boys's 7, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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