V
Valmiera
Home
W
L
W
W
W
6W 2D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
4:00 pm
—
N/A
R
Riga FC 2
Away
W
W
W
W
L
5W 1D 4L
▲ Improving
Valmiera
50%
Draw
30%
Riga FC 2
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
76.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-14.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Valmiera to win
1.31
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Valmiera vs Riga FC 2
Competition: Latvia Nakotnes Liga
Date: Monday, 27th July 2026
KO: 4:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Valmiera to win)
Odds: 1.31
Confidence: 62%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Valmiera
0
Draws
0
Riga FC 2
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Valmiera won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Valmiera
Metric
Riga FC 2
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.7
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
3.5
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
V0
0-0
3.2%
0-1
4.6%
0-2
3.3%
0-3
1.6%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
V1
1-0
6.4%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
6.7%
1-3
3.2%
1-4
1.2%
1-5
0.3%
V2
2-0
6.4%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.7%
2-3
3.2%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
V3
3-0
4.2%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
4.5%
3-3
2.2%
3-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
V4
4-0
2.1%
4-1
3.1%
4-2
2.2%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
V5
5-0
0.9%
5-1
1.2%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(9.2%)
1-0(6.4%)
2-0(6.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
V=Home goals ↓ R=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Valmiera Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Riga FC 2 Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Home Win & BTTS No
19%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
24%
Away Win & BTTS No
16%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
31%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
26%
Away Win & Under 2.5
14%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Riga FC 21
Valmiera3
Recent Form
Valmiera
Skanste0
Valmiera3
Valmiera2
Ogre United (AET)4
Valmiera4
Leevon PPK1
JFK Ventspils0
Valmiera2
FK Smiltene1
Valmiera4
Tukums 2000 21
Valmiera4
Valmiera2
Skanste0
Super Nova 20
Valmiera0
Riga Mariners3
Valmiera1
Valmiera1
Alberts JDFS1
Riga FC 2
Riga FC 22
Super Nova 21
Riga FC 22
Tukums 2000 20
RFS 21
Riga FC 23
Riga FC 22
FK Smiltene0
Rezekne2
Riga FC 21
Riga FC 20
Marupe4
Leevon PPK3
Riga FC 22
Skanste2
Riga FC 20
Riga FC 24
JFK Ventspils2
Riga Mariners2
Riga FC 22
Valmiera (Home)
Valmiera2
Ogre United (AET)4
Valmiera4
Leevon PPK1
Valmiera2
Skanste0
Valmiera1
Alberts JDFS1
Valmiera3
Rezekne1
Valmiera4
FK Smiltene0
Valmiera4
Ogre United3
Valmiera6
FK Cesis0
Valmiera8
FK Limbazi0
Valmiera2
Tukums 20003
Riga FC 2 (Away)
RFS 21
Riga FC 23
Rezekne2
Riga FC 21
Leevon PPK3
Riga FC 22
Skanste2
Riga FC 20
Riga Mariners2
Riga FC 22
Metta2
Riga FC 20
Tukums 2000 22
Riga FC 21
JFK Ventspils2
Riga FC 22
Leevon PPK0
Riga FC 23
Skanste1
Riga FC 20
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 27th July 2026, Valmiera host Riga FC 2 at N/A in Latvia Nakotnes Liga. We recommend Valmiera to win as the standout selection.
Valmiera arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Riga FC 2 are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Valmiera, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Riga FC 2's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: valmiera to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Latvia Nakotnes Liga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.31, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 4:00 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Valmiera vs Riga FC 2?
Our selection is 1 — Valmiera to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Valmiera's current form?
Valmiera have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Riga FC 2 been performing recently?
Riga FC 2 have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Valmiera lead with 1 wins versus Riga FC 2's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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