WON Tip WON Benfica 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes
B

Benfica

Home
W D W L W
6W 2D 2L → Steady
VS
3-0
V
Vitoria Guimaraes
Away
L L D L W
3W 1D 6L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 21st March 2026
1
Backing Benfica to win
Benfica 50%
Draw 30%
Vitoria Guimaraes 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -16.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Benfica to win
1.34
BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes Competition: Liga Portugal Date: Saturday, 21st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Benfica to win) Odds: 1.34 Confidence: 58% Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Benfica
3
Draws
0
Vitoria Guimaraes
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Benfica won 7 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Benfica
Metric
Vitoria Guimaraes
1.8
Goals For / Game
0
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
6-2-2
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
60%
30%
1.5
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
V0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
B0
0-0 23.5%
0-1 12.9%
0-2 3.6%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 21.1%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 3.2%
1-3 0.6%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 5.2%
2-2 1.4%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 1.6%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.4%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(21.1%) 2-0(9.5%) 2-1(5.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   V=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Benfica Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Vitoria Guimaraes Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Benfica
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.3
Vitoria Guimaraes
Overall
3.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 34%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.11.25
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
Benfica3
19.04.25
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
Benfica3
07.12.24
LP: Benfica1
Vitória Guimarães0
11.02.24
LP: Vitória Guimarães2
Benfica2
02.09.23
LP: Benfica4
Vitória Guimarães0
18.03.23
LP: Benfica5
Vitória Guimarães1
01.10.22
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
Benfica0
27.02.22
LP: Benfica3
Vitória Guimarães0
27.10.21
CUP: Vitória Guimarães3
Benfica3
25.09.21
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Benfica3
Recent Form
Benfica
14.03.26
LP: Arouca1
Benfica2
W
08.03.26
LP: Benfica2
FC Porto2
D
02.03.26
LP: Gil Vicente1
Benfica2
W
25.02.26
CL: Real Madrid2
Benfica1
L
21.02.26
LP: Benfica3
AFS0
W
17.02.26
CL: Benfica0
Real Madrid1
L
13.02.26
LP: Santa Clara1
Benfica2
W
08.02.26
LP: Benfica2
Alverca1
W
01.02.26
LP: Tondela0
Benfica0
D
28.01.26
CL: Benfica4
Real Madrid2
W
Vitoria Guimaraes
14.03.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Famalicão2
L
08.03.26
LP: Santa Clara2
Vitória Guimarães0
L
28.02.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Alverca1
D
21.02.26
LP: Braga3
Vitória Guimarães2
L
14.02.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães2
Estrela1
W
07.02.26
LP: Arouca3
Vitória Guimarães2
L
30.01.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães1
Moreirense0
W
24.01.26
LP: Estoril4
Vitória Guimarães2
L
18.01.26
LP: Vitória Guimarães0
FC Porto1
L
10.01.26
CUP: Vitória Guimarães2
Braga1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Benfica host Vitoria Guimaraes in Liga Portugal. We recommend Benfica to win as the standout selection.

Benfica arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Vitoria Guimaraes are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Benfica, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Vitoria Guimaraes's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: benfica to win at odds of 1.34 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Liga Portugal match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.34. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Our selection is 1 — Benfica to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Benfica's current form?
Benfica have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Vitoria Guimaraes been performing recently?
Vitoria Guimaraes have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Benfica lead with 7 wins versus Vitoria Guimaraes's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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