WON Tip WON Turkey 1-0 Romania
T

Turkey

Home
D W W W L
7W 1D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
1-0
R
Romania
Away
W L W W D
5W 1D 4L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 26th March 2026
1
Backing Turkey to win
Turkey 50%
Draw 20%
Romania 30%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 3.33
Implied Prob 70.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -17.9% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Turkey to win
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Turkey vs Romania Competition: Euro World Cup Qualifier Date: Thursday, 26th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Turkey to win) Odds: 1.41 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Turkey
0
Draws
6
Romania
10
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Turkey won 4 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Turkey
Metric
Romania
2.5
Goals For / Game
2.1
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1.4
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
70%
50%
3.8
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
T0
0-0 2.4%
0-1 4.2%
0-2 3.8%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.4%
T1
1-0 4.6%
1-1 8.3%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 4.5%
1-4 2.0%
1-5 0.7%
T2
2-0 4.5%
2-1 8.1%
2-2 7.2%
2-3 4.4%
2-4 2.0%
2-5 0.7%
T3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 5.2%
3-2 4.7%
3-3 2.8%
3-4 1.3%
3-5 0.5%
T4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.6%
4-2 2.3%
4-3 1.4%
4-4 0.6%
4-5 0.2%
T5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(8.1%) 3-1(5.2%) 3-2(4.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip T=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Turkey Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Romania Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Turkey
Overall
7.3
Scoring
8.3
Defence
5.0
Romania
Overall
5.3
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 41%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 29%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.11.17
FI: Romania2
Turkey0
10.09.13
WC: Romania0
Turkey2
12.10.12
WC: Turkey0
Romania1
11.08.10
FI: Turkey2
Romania0
22.08.07
FI: Romania2
Turkey1
13.11.85
WC: Turkey1
Romania3
02.04.85
WC: Romania3
Turkey0
23.10.65
WC: Turkey2
Romania1
02.05.65
WC: Romania3
Turkey0
26.04.59
EUR: Turkey2
Romania0
Recent Form
Turkey
18.11.25
WCQ: Spain2
Turkey2
D
15.11.25
WCQ: Turkey2
Bulgaria0
W
14.10.25
WCQ: Turkey4
Georgia1
W
11.10.25
WCQ: Bulgaria1
Turkey6
W
07.09.25
WCQ: Turkey0
Spain6
L
04.09.25
WCQ: Georgia2
Turkey3
W
11.06.25
FI: Mexico1
Turkey0
L
07.06.25
FI: USA1
Turkey2
W
23.03.25
UNL: Hungary0
Turkey3
W
20.03.25
UNL: Turkey3
Hungary1
W
Romania
18.11.25
WCQ: Romania7
San Marino1
W
15.11.25
WCQ: Bosnia & Herzegovina3
Romania1
L
12.10.25
WCQ: Romania1
Austria0
W
09.10.25
FI: Romania2
Moldova1
W
09.09.25
WCQ: Cyprus2
Romania2
D
05.09.25
FI: Romania0
Canada3
L
10.06.25
WCQ: Romania2
Cyprus0
W
07.06.25
WCQ: Austria2
Romania1
L
24.03.25
WCQ: San Marino1
Romania5
W
21.03.25
WCQ: Romania0
Bosnia & Herzegovina1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 26th March 2026, Turkey host Romania in Euro World Cup Qualifier. We recommend Turkey to win as the standout selection.

Turkey arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Romania are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Turkey, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Romania's 6, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: turkey to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Euro World Cup Qualifier match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.41. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Turkey vs Romania?
Our selection is 1 — Turkey to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Turkey's current form?
Turkey have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Romania been performing recently?
Romania have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Turkey lead with 4 wins versus Romania's 6, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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