B
Brazil
Home
W
W
D
W
W
6W 2D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
—
6:00 pm
NRG Stadium (Houston, TX)
J
Japan
Away
D
W
D
W
W
7W 3D 0L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
74.1%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+11.9%
Value detected
Kelly %
46%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Japan Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Brazil vs Japan
Competition: World Cup 2026
Date: Monday, 29th June 2026
KO: 6:00 pm
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.35
Confidence: 86%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Also: Japan Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Brazil
2
Draws
1
Japan
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 80% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Brazil
Metric
Japan
2.4
Goals For / Game
2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
60%
6-2-2
W — D — L
7-3-0
Win Rate
3.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
B0
0-0
4.5%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
5.4%
0-3
2.8%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.3%
B1
1-0
7.0%
1-1
10.8%
1-2
8.4%
1-3
4.3%
1-4
1.7%
1-5
0.5%
B2
2-0
5.4%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.5%
2-3
3.4%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
B3
3-0
2.8%
3-1
4.3%
3-2
3.4%
3-3
1.7%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
B4
4-0
1.1%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.7%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
B5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(10.8%)
1-2(8.4%)
2-1(8.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals ↓ J=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
21%
Home Win & BTTS No
18%
Draw & BTTS Yes
9%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
25%
Away Win & BTTS No
20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
23%
Home Win & Under 2.5
16%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
27%
Away Win & Under 2.5
18%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Japan3
Brazil2
Japan0
Brazil1
Japan1
Brazil3
Japan0
Brazil4
Brazil3
Japan0
Japan0
Brazil4
Japan1
Brazil4
Brazil2
Japan2
Brazil0
Japan0
Japan0
Brazil2
Recent Form
Brazil
Scotland0
Brazil3
Brazil3
Haiti0
Brazil1
Morocco1
Brazil2
Egypt1
Brazil6
Panama2
Brazil3
Croatia1
Brazil1
France2
Brazil1
Tunisia1
Brazil2
Senegal0
Japan3
Brazil2
Japan
Japan1
Sweden1
Tunisia0
Japan4
Netherlands2
Japan2
Japan1
Iceland0
England0
Japan1
Scotland0
Japan1
Japan3
Bolivia0
Japan2
Ghana0
Japan3
Brazil2
Japan2
Paraguay2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 29th June 2026, Brazil host Japan at NRG Stadium (Houston, TX) in World Cup 2026. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
Brazil arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Japan are travelling well, with a record of 7W 3D 0L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Brazil, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Japan's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this World Cup 2026 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.35, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 6:00 pm over at NRG Stadium (Houston, TX).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Brazil vs Japan?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 86%.
What is Brazil's current form?
Brazil have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Japan been performing recently?
Japan have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Brazil lead with 7 wins versus Japan's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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