A
Afturelding
Home
W
L
W
L
W
8W 0D 2L
→ Steady
VS
—
8:15 pm
Varmárvöllur (Mosfellsbaer)
A
Aegir
Away
D
L
L
L
L
3W 2D 5L
▼ Declining
Afturelding
50%
Draw
30%
Aegir
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
82%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-14%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Afturelding to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Afturelding vs Aegir
Competition: Iceland D
Date: Monday, 29th June 2026
KO: 8:15 pm
Pick: 1 (Afturelding to win)
Odds: 1.22
Confidence: 68%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
9
Afturelding
1
Draws
0
Aegir
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Afturelding won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Afturelding
Metric
Aegir
2.9
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.8
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-0-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
3.7
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0
2.6%
0-1
3.4%
0-2
2.2%
0-3
1.0%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
A1
1-0
6.1%
1-1
7.9%
1-2
5.2%
1-3
2.2%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
A2
2-0
7.2%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.1%
2-3
2.6%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
A3
3-0
5.6%
3-1
7.3%
3-2
4.8%
3-3
2.1%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
A4
4-0
3.3%
4-1
4.3%
4-2
2.8%
4-3
1.2%
4-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
A5
5-0
1.6%
5-1
2.0%
5-2
1.3%
5-3
0.6%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
2-1(9.3%)
3-1(7.3%)
2-0(7.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Afturelding Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Aegir Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
44%
Home Win & BTTS No
23%
Draw & BTTS Yes
5%
Draw & BTTS No
3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
16%
Away Win & BTTS No
9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
54%
Home Win & Under 2.5
13%
Draw & Over 2.5
6%
Draw & Under 2.5
2%
Away Win & Over 2.5
20%
Away Win & Under 2.5
5%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Afturelding5
Aegir0
Aegir1
Afturelding4
Aegir0
Afturelding1
Afturelding3
Aegir2
Aegir0
Afturelding1
Afturelding2
Aegir0
Afturelding0
Aegir0
Aegir0
Afturelding3
Aegir0
Afturelding4
Afturelding5
Aegir0
Recent Form
Afturelding
Afturelding2
Njardvik0
Vestri2
Afturelding0
Afturelding3
Stjarnan1
Kopavogur2
Afturelding1
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
Grindavik1
Afturelding3
Afturelding4
Throttur3
Grotta1
Afturelding3
Afturelding5
Njardvik2
Leiknir0
Afturelding3
Aegir
Grindavik0
Aegir0
Aegir1
Throttur3
Vestri3
Aegir2
Aegir0
Breidablik3
Aegir0
Leiknir3
Volsungur2
Aegir3
Aegir4
IR Reykjavik1
Njardvik0
Aegir0
Aegir1
Vestri2
KA Akureyri1
Aegir2
Afturelding (Home)
Afturelding2
Njardvik0
Afturelding3
Stjarnan1
Afturelding5
Fylkir1
Afturelding4
Throttur3
Afturelding5
Njardvik2
Afturelding0
Volsungur0
Afturelding4
IR Reykjavik7
Afturelding6
Ymir1
Afturelding0
Thor Akureyri5
Afturelding2
Grotta0
Aegir (Away)
Grindavik0
Aegir0
Vestri3
Aegir2
Volsungur2
Aegir3
Njardvik0
Aegir0
KA Akureyri1
Aegir2
Kopavogur2
Aegir1
Fylkir3
Aegir0
Arbaer1
Aegir7
Kopavogur2
Aegir1
Keflavik3
Aegir1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 29th June 2026, Afturelding host Aegir at Varmárvöllur (Mosfellsbaer) in Iceland D. We recommend Afturelding to win as the standout selection.
Afturelding arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Aegir are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Afturelding, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Aegir's 0, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.
Our verdict: afturelding to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Iceland D match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.22, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 8:15 pm over at Varmárvöllur (Mosfellsbaer).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Afturelding vs Aegir?
Our selection is 1 — Afturelding to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Afturelding's current form?
Afturelding have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Aegir been performing recently?
Aegir have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Afturelding lead with 9 wins versus Aegir's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
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