LOST Tip LOST BFC Daugavpils 0-1 RFS
B

BFC Daugavpils

Home
L D L D W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
0-1
R
RFS
Away
W W D W W
8W 1D 1L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Wednesday, 13th May 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 66.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +11.3% Value detected
Kelly % 34% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
BFC Daugavpils
0
Draws
10
RFS
10
Meetings
4.5
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 90% of H2H.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
BFC Daugavpils
Metric
RFS
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.9
20%
Clean Sheets
50%
4-2-4
W — D — L
8-1-1
Win Rate
40%
80%
3.2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
B0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 8.6%
0-3 5.7%
0-4 2.9%
0-5 1.1%
B1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 9.9%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.6%
1-4 3.3%
1-5 1.3%
B2
2-0 2.8%
2-1 5.7%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.9%
2-5 0.8%
B3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 2.2%
3-2 2.2%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
B4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(9.9%) 1-2(9.9%) 0-1(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
BFC Daugavpils
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.3
RFS
Overall
8.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 14%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Away Win & BTTS No 27%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 15%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 30%
Away Win & Under 2.5 30%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils1
28.02.26CF
RFS1
BFC Daugavpils0
21.09.25VIR
RFS5
BFC Daugavpils1
30.06.25VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
RFS7
09.05.25VIR
RFS5
BFC Daugavpils1
15.03.25VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
RFS2
06.10.24VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS3
17.09.24VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils1
13.07.24LC
RFS2
BFC Daugavpils1
20.05.24VIR
RFS5
BFC Daugavpils0
Recent Form
BFC Daugavpils
08.05.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
L
02.05.26VIR
Grobina1
BFC Daugavpils1
D
27.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova1
L
21.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils1
D
16.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils1
Jelgava0
W
12.04.26VIR
Auda2
BFC Daugavpils3
W
07.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
Ogre United1
W
03.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
FK Liepaja0
W
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils1
L
14.03.26VIR
Riga FC4
BFC Daugavpils2
L
RFS
08.05.26VIR
RFS5
FK Liepaja0
W
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
22.04.26VIR
Grobina0
RFS1
W
18.04.26VIR
RFS2
Super Nova0
W
13.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
RFS2
W
08.04.26VIR
Jelgava0
RFS1
W
04.04.26VIR
RFS0
Auda1
L
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
W
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Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 13th May 2026, BFC Daugavpils host RFS in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

BFC Daugavpils arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

RFS are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour BFC Daugavpils, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to RFS's 10, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.50 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Latvia Virsliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.50. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for BFC Daugavpils vs RFS?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.50. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is BFC Daugavpils's current form?
BFC Daugavpils have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has RFS been performing recently?
RFS have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
BFC Daugavpils lead with 0 wins versus RFS's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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