Moderate Signal 50% Confidence
V

Vasco

Home
W W D W L
5W 3D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
P
Paysandu PA
Away
W W W W W
6W 2D 2L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Wednesday, 13th May 2026
1
Backing Vasco to win
Vasco 50%
Draw 30%
Paysandu PA 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 76.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -26.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Vasco to win
1.31
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Vasco vs Paysandu PA Competition: Copa Do Brasil Date: Wednesday, 13th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Vasco to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
5
Vasco
0
Draws
5
Paysandu PA
10
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Neutral Vasco won 5 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Vasco
Metric
Paysandu PA
1.4
Goals For / Game
2.2
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.7
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-3-2
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
50%
60%
3.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
V0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 7.1%
0-2 5.3%
0-3 2.7%
0-4 1.0%
0-5 0.3%
V1
1-0 7.3%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 8.3%
1-3 4.1%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
V2
2-0 5.7%
2-1 8.5%
2-2 6.4%
2-3 3.2%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
V3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
V4
4-0 1.1%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
V5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(8.5%) 1-0(7.3%) 2-0(5.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip V=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Vasco Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Paysandu PA Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Vasco
Overall
5.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
7.3
Paysandu PA
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.3
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.04.26COP
Paysandu PA0
Vasco2
05.10.16SB
Paysandu PA3
Vasco1
18.06.16SB
Vasco0
Paysandu PA2
20.11.05SA
Vasco4
Paysandu PA0
10.08.05SA
Paysandu PA0
Vasco2
07.09.04SA
Vasco0
Paysandu PA1
15.05.04SA
Paysandu PA1
Vasco2
05.11.03SA
Paysandu PA1
Vasco2
12.07.03SA
Vasco0
Paysandu PA2
11.09.02SA
Paysandu PA2
Vasco0
Recent Form
Vasco
11.05.26SA
Vasco1
Athletico-PR0
W
06.05.26COP
A. Italiano1
Vasco2
W
03.05.26SA
Flamengo RJ2
Vasco2
D
30.04.26COP
Vasco3
Olimpia Asuncion0
W
26.04.26SA
Corinthians1
Vasco0
L
22.04.26COP
Paysandu PA0
Vasco2
W
18.04.26SA
Vasco2
Sao Paulo1
W
15.04.26COP
Vasco1
A. Italiano2
L
11.04.26SA
Remo1
Vasco1
D
07.04.26COP
Barracas Central0
Vasco0
D
Paysandu PA
09.05.26SC
Paysandu PA2
Anapolis1
W
06.05.26COP
Aguia De Maraba1
Paysandu PA5
W
03.05.26SC
Paysandu PA4
Botafogo PB2
W
29.04.26COP
Trem0
Paysandu PA3
W
25.04.26SC
Itabaiana1
Paysandu PA4
W
22.04.26COP
Paysandu PA0
Vasco2
L
18.04.26SC
Paysandu PA1
Barra FC1
D
15.04.26COP
Paysandu PA2
Independencia1
W
12.04.26SC
Paysandu PA1
Brusque1
D
10.04.26COP
Nacional-AM7
Paysandu PA0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 13th May 2026, Vasco host Paysandu PA in Copa Do Brasil. We recommend Vasco to win as the standout selection.

Vasco arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Paysandu PA are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Vasco, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Paysandu PA's 5, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: vasco to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Copa Do Brasil match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.31. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Vasco vs Paysandu PA?
Our selection is 1 — Vasco to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Vasco's current form?
Vasco have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Paysandu PA been performing recently?
Paysandu PA have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Vasco lead with 5 wins versus Paysandu PA's 5, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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