D
Derry City
Home
L
L
W
D
L
2W 4D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
—
6:30 pm
—
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry)
C
CSKA Sofia
Away
W
W
W
L
W
5W 1D 3L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
85.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-8.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Derry City
1
Draws
2
CSKA Sofia
3
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 67% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Derry City
Metric
CSKA Sofia
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1.4
30%
Clean Sheets
22%
2-4-4
W — D — L
5-1-3
Win Rate
2.9
Avg Goals
79%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
57%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
D0
0-0
5.5%
0-1
8.0%
0-2
5.8%
0-3
2.8%
0-4
1.0%
0-5
0.3%
D1
1-0
8.0%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
8.4%
1-3
4.1%
1-4
1.5%
1-5
0.4%
D2
2-0
5.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.1%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
D3
3-0
2.8%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.9%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.2%
D4
4-0
1.0%
4-1
1.5%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
D5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(11.6%)
1-2(8.4%)
2-1(8.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
D=Home goals ↓ C=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
12%
Home Win & BTTS No
8%
Draw & BTTS Yes
15%
Draw & BTTS No
11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
32%
Away Win & BTTS No
23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
12%
Home Win & Under 2.5
8%
Draw & Over 2.5
15%
Draw & Under 2.5
11%
Away Win & Over 2.5
32%
Away Win & Under 2.5
23%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
CSKA Sofia3
Derry City2
Derry City1
CSKA Sofia1
CSKA Sofia1
Derry City0
Recent Form
Derry City
CSKA Sofia3
Derry City2
Derry City2
Waterford4
Derry City2
Drogheda0
Shamrock Rovers1
Derry City1
Galway2
Derry City1
Derry City4
Bohemians1
Dundalk2
Derry City1
Derry City0
Shelbourne0
Derry City0
St. Patricks0
Waterford2
Derry City2
CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia3
Derry City2
CSKA Sofia3
Marek0
Odra Opole2
CSKA Sofia3
CSKA Sofia0
Polissya Zhytomyr4
Grosuplje1
CSKA Sofia2
Ludogorets1
CSKA Sofia0
Levski Sofia2
CSKA Sofia0
CSKA Sofia1
CSKA 1948 Sofia1
CSKA 1948 Sofia0
CSKA Sofia1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Derry City host CSKA Sofia at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry) in Europa League Qualifier. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
Derry City arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
CSKA Sofia are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 3L across 9 matches.
Historical meetings favour Derry City, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to CSKA Sofia's 2, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.17 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.17, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 6:30 pm over at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium (Derry).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is Derry City's current form?
Derry City have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has CSKA Sofia been performing recently?
CSKA Sofia have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Derry City lead with 0 wins versus CSKA Sofia's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
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