WON Tip WON Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV
D

Dortmund

Home
W W L L D
6W 1D 3L → Steady
VS
3-2
H
Hamburger SV
Away
D W L L D
3W 5D 2L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 21st March 2026
1
Backing Dortmund to win
Dortmund 50%
Draw 30%
Hamburger SV 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 68.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -15.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Dortmund to win
1.46
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Competition: Bundesliga Date: Saturday, 21st March 2026 Pick: 1 (Dortmund to win) Odds: 1.46 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
5
Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Neutral Dortmund won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Dortmund
Metric
Hamburger SV
2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-1-3
W — D — L
3-5-2
Win Rate
60%
30%
2.9
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
D0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 5.3%
0-3 2.4%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
D1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 11.7%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.6%
1-4 1.2%
1-5 0.3%
D2
2-0 6.5%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.7%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.2%
D3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
D4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
D5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(8.8%) 1-0(8.7%) 2-0(6.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip D=Home goals ↓   H=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Dortmund Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Hamburger SV Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Dortmund
Overall
6.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.0
Hamburger SV
Overall
4.5
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 14%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.11.25
BUN: Hamburger SV1
Dortmund1
10.02.18
BUN: Dortmund2
Hamburger SV0
20.09.17
BUN: Hamburger SV0
Dortmund3
04.04.17
BUN: Dortmund3
Hamburger SV0
05.11.16
BUN: Hamburger SV2
Dortmund5
17.04.16
BUN: Dortmund3
Hamburger SV0
20.11.15
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Dortmund1
07.03.15
BUN: Hamburger SV0
Dortmund0
04.10.14
BUN: Dortmund0
Hamburger SV1
22.02.14
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Dortmund0
Recent Form
Dortmund
14.03.26
BUN: Dortmund2
Augsburg0
W
07.03.26
BUN: FC Köln1
Dortmund2
W
28.02.26
BUN: Dortmund2
Bayern Munich3
L
25.02.26
UCL: Atalanta4
Dortmund1
L
21.02.26
BUN: RB Leipzig2
Dortmund2
D
17.02.26
UCL: Dortmund2
Atalanta0
W
13.02.26
BUN: Dortmund4
Mainz0
W
07.02.26
BUN: Wolfsburg1
Dortmund2
W
01.02.26
BUN: Dortmund3
Heidenheim2
W
28.01.26
UCL: Dortmund0
Inter2
L
Hamburger SV
14.03.26
BUN: Hamburger SV1
FC Köln1
D
07.03.26
BUN: Wolfsburg1
Hamburger SV2
W
04.03.26
BUN: Hamburger SV0
Bayer Leverkusen1
L
01.03.26
BUN: Hamburger SV1
RB Leipzig2
L
20.02.26
BUN: Mainz1
Hamburger SV1
D
14.02.26
BUN: Hamburger SV3
Union Berlin2
W
07.02.26
BUN: Heidenheim0
Hamburger SV2
W
31.01.26
BUN: Hamburger SV2
Bayern Munich2
D
23.01.26
BUN: St. Pauli0
Hamburger SV0
D
17.01.26
BUN: Hamburger SV0
B. Monchengladbach0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 21st March 2026, Dortmund host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga. We recommend Dortmund to win as the standout selection.

Dortmund arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Hamburger SV are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 5D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Dortmund, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Hamburger SV's 3, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: dortmund to win at odds of 1.46 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Bundesliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.46. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?
Our selection is 1 — Dortmund to win, priced at approximately 1.46. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Dortmund's current form?
Dortmund have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hamburger SV been performing recently?
Hamburger SV have recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dortmund lead with 5 wins versus Hamburger SV's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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