L
Levadia
Home
W
W
L
D
W
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
5:30 pm
—
A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)
C
Caernarfon
Away
L
W
W
W
W
6W 0D 4L
▲ Improving
Levadia
60%
Draw
20%
Caernarfon
20%
H Fair Odds
1.67
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
84.7%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-10.7%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Levadia to win
1.18
Over 2.5 Goals80%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Levadia vs Caernarfon
Competition: Conference League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 16th July 2026
KO: 5:30 pm
Pick: 1 (Levadia to win)
Odds: 1.18
Confidence: 74%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Levadia
0
Draws
0
Caernarfon
1
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Levadia won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Levadia
Metric
Caernarfon
2.8
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.7
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
8-1-1
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
3.5
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
L0
0-0
3.0%
0-1
3.8%
0-2
2.4%
0-3
1.0%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
L1
1-0
6.8%
1-1
8.5%
1-2
5.3%
1-3
2.2%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
L2
2-0
7.6%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
L3
3-0
5.7%
3-1
7.2%
3-2
4.5%
3-3
1.9%
3-4
0.6%
3-5
0.2%
L4
4-0
3.2%
4-1
4.0%
4-2
2.5%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
L5
5-0
1.5%
5-1
1.8%
5-2
1.1%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.6%)
2-0(7.6%)
3-1(7.2%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
L=Home goals ↓ C=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Levadia Win
1.67
60%
Draw
5
20%
Caernarfon Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
30%
Home Win & BTTS No
25%
Draw & BTTS Yes
2%
Draw & BTTS No
1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Away Win & BTTS No
19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
44%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
2%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
34%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Caernarfon0
Levadia5
Recent Form
Levadia
Caernarfon0
Levadia5
Narva1
Levadia3
Levadia1
Flora2
Levadia1
Kalju1
Nomme Utd1
Levadia2
Flora1
Levadia3
Tammeka0
Levadia1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Levadia6
Paide1
Levadia3
Levadia3
Harju JK Laagri0
Caernarfon
Caernarfon0
Levadia5
Glentoran1
Caernarfon2
Caernarfon2
Penybont0
Caernarfon3
Flint0
Colwyn Bay0
Caernarfon2
Caernarfon0
TNS4
Barry2
Caernarfon1
Caernarfon2
Connahs Q.4
Rhyl1
Caernarfon2
Caernarfon3
Colwyn Bay0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Levadia host Caernarfon at A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend Levadia to win as the standout selection.
Levadia arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Caernarfon are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Levadia, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Caernarfon's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: levadia to win at odds of 1.18 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Conference League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.18, sitting at roughly 60,20,20% in our model. The match gets going at 5:30 pm over at A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Levadia vs Caernarfon?
Our selection is 1 — Levadia to win, priced at approximately 1.18. Tip confidence rating: 74%.
What is Levadia's current form?
Levadia have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Caernarfon been performing recently?
Caernarfon have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Levadia lead with 1 wins versus Caernarfon's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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