WON Tip WON Racing Montevideo 1-1 Progreso
R

Racing Montevideo

Home
W W W L W
6W 1D 3L โ–ผ Declining
VS
1-1
P
Progreso
Away
L W D D L
4W 2D 4L โ–ฒ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection ยท Thursday, 26th March 2026
1X
Backing Racing Montevideo to win or draw
Implied Prob 83.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +16.7% Value detected
Kelly % 100% Suggested bankroll %
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Head to Head
Record
6
Racing Montevideo
1
Draws
3
Progreso
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Racing Montevideo
Metric
Progreso
1.5
Goals For / Game
1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-1-3
W โ€” D โ€” L
4-2-4
Win Rate
60%
40%
2.4
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
R0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 9.1%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 13.4%
1-1 12.7%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 9.4%
2-1 8.9%
2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 4.4%
3-1 4.1%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.5%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.4%) 1-1(12.7%) 0-0(9.5%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts tip R=Home goals โ†“   P=Away โ†’
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Team Ratings
Grades
Racing Montevideo
Overall
6.3 โ–ผ
Scoring
5.0 โ–ผ
Defence
7.0 โ–ผ
Progreso
Overall
4.6 โ–ฒ
Scoring
3.3 โ–ฒ
Defence
5.7 โ–ฒ
๐Ÿ”€
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 16%
Away Win & Under 2.5 19%
๐Ÿงฎ
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
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Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.09.25
LUR: Racing Montevideo0
Progreso0
22.06.25
LUR: Racing Montevideo3
Progreso0
30.03.25
LUR: Progreso0
Racing Montevideo1
21.09.24
LUR: Racing Montevideo1
Progreso0
07.07.24
LUR: Progreso3
Racing Montevideo2
10.03.24
LUR: Progreso4
Racing Montevideo3
14.08.22
SEG: Racing Montevideo2
Progreso1
22.05.22
SEG: Progreso0
Racing Montevideo2
09.10.19
LUR: Progreso2
Racing Montevideo1
17.03.19
LUR: Racing Montevideo3
Progreso0
Recent Form
Racing Montevideo
21.03.26
LUR: Racing Montevideo1
Liverpool M.0
W
14.03.26
LUR: Boston River0
Racing Montevideo1
W
08.03.26
LUR: Racing Montevideo1
CA Cerro0
W
05.03.26
CS: Boston River1
Racing Montevideo0
L
28.02.26
LUR: Albion1
Racing Montevideo3
W
21.02.26
LUR: Racing Montevideo4
Danubio0
W
15.02.26
LUR: Nacional1
Racing Montevideo1
D
08.02.26
LUR: Racing Montevideo2
Maldonado4
L
20.01.26
COP: Peรฑarol1
Racing Montevideo0
L
15.01.26
COP: Racing Montevideo2
CA Cerro1
W
Progreso
22.03.26
LUR: Progreso0
Boston River1
L
14.03.26
LUR: CA Cerro0
Progreso1
W
07.03.26
LUR: Progreso2
Albion2
D
28.02.26
LUR: Danubio2
Progreso2
D
22.02.26
LUR: Progreso0
Nacional1
L
14.02.26
LUR: Maldonado2
Progreso0
L
07.02.26
LUR: Progreso0
Central Espaรฑol3
L
30.01.26
COP: Boston River1
Progreso2
W
23.01.26
COP: Nacional1
Progreso2
W
19.01.26
COP: Juventud0
Progreso1
W
๐Ÿ“
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 26th March 2026, Racing Montevideo host Progreso in Liga AUF Uruguaya. We recommend Racing Montevideo to win or draw as the standout selection.

Racing Montevideo arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Progreso are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Racing Montevideo, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Progreso's 3, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: racing montevideo to win or draw at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Liga AUF Uruguaya match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.20. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Racing Montevideo vs Progreso?
Our selection is 1X โ€” Racing Montevideo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 100%.
What is Racing Montevideo's current form?
Racing Montevideo have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Progreso been performing recently?
Progreso have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Racing Montevideo lead with 6 wins versus Progreso's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
โš ๏ธ
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