S
Shkendija
Home
W
D
L
L
W
5W 1D 4L
▲ Improving
VS
—
7:00 pm
—
National Arena Toshe Proeski (Skopje)
E
Europa FC
Away
L
W
L
D
W
6W 2D 2L
▼ Declining
Shkendija
60%
Draw
20%
Europa FC
20%
H Fair Odds
1.67
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
82%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-18%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Shkendija to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals65%
BTTS — No70%
Europa FC Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Shkendija vs Europa FC
Competition: Conference League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 16th July 2026
KO: 7:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Shkendija to win)
Odds: 1.22
Confidence: 64%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: BTTS — No (70%)
Also: Europa FC Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Shkendija
0
Draws
0
Europa FC
1
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Shkendija won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shkendija
Metric
Europa FC
1.6
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.4
Goals Against / Game
0.9
20%
Clean Sheets
60%
5-1-4
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
3.1
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
S0
0-0
4.7%
0-1
8.5%
0-2
7.7%
0-3
4.6%
0-4
2.1%
0-5
0.8%
S1
1-0
5.9%
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.6%
1-3
5.8%
1-4
2.6%
1-5
0.9%
S2
2-0
3.7%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
3.6%
2-4
1.6%
2-5
0.6%
S3
3-0
1.5%
3-1
2.8%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
1.5%
3-4
0.7%
3-5
0.2%
S4
4-0
0.5%
4-1
0.9%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
S5
5-0
0.1%
5-1
0.2%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(6.7%)
1-0(5.9%)
2-0(3.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ E=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shkendija Win
1.67
60%
Draw
5
20%
Europa FC Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
12%
Home Win & BTTS No
28%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
14%
Away Win & BTTS No
34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
26%
Home Win & Under 2.5
14%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
31%
Away Win & Under 2.5
17%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Europa FC0
Shkendija5
Recent Form
Shkendija
Europa FC0
Shkendija5
FK Zorya Luhansk2
Shkendija2
Celje1
Shkendija0
Shkendija0
Hajduk Split4
Koper1
Shkendija2
Vardar3
Shkendija0
Sileks1
Shkendija0
Shkendija2
Brera Strumica1
Shkendija3
Struga1
Shkendija Haracine0
Shkendija2
Europa FC
Europa FC0
Shkendija5
Europa FC4
Mons Calpe1
Lincoln Red Imps2
Europa FC0
Europa FC0
St Josephs0
Lions Gibraltar0
Europa FC3
Europa FC3
Lynx1
Manchester 620
Europa FC5
Europa FC6
Hound Dogs0
Europa FC0
Lincoln Red Imps0
College 1975 FC0
Europa FC1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 16th July 2026, Shkendija host Europa FC at National Arena Toshe Proeski (Skopje) in Conference League Qualifier. We recommend Shkendija to win as the standout selection.
Shkendija arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Europa FC are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Shkendija, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Europa FC's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: shkendija to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Conference League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.22, sitting at roughly 60,20,20% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at National Arena Toshe Proeski (Skopje).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shkendija vs Europa FC?
Our selection is 1 — Shkendija to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Shkendija's current form?
Shkendija have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Europa FC been performing recently?
Europa FC have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shkendija lead with 1 wins versus Europa FC's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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