WON Tip WON Tartu Welco 4-0 FC Tallinn
T

Tartu Welco

Home
W W W D L
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
4-0
F
FC Tallinn
Away
W D L D L
2W 3D 5L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 13th June 2026
1
Backing Tartu Welco to win
Tartu Welco 50%
Draw 30%
FC Tallinn 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -24% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Tartu Welco to win
1.25
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Tartu Welco vs FC Tallinn Competition: Estonia Esiliiga Date: Saturday, 13th June 2026 Pick: 1 (Tartu Welco to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 56% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Tartu Welco
3
Draws
1
FC Tallinn
10
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Tartu Welco won 6 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Tartu Welco
Metric
FC Tallinn
2.3
Goals For / Game
1
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.1
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
60%
20%
3.5
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
T0
0-0 3.2%
0-1 4.0%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
T1
1-0 7.0%
1-1 8.7%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
T2
2-0 7.7%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
T3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 7.0%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 1.8%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.1%
T4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 3.9%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
T5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.7%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.6%) 2-0(7.7%) 3-1(7.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip T=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Tartu Welco Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
FC Tallinn Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Tartu Welco
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
5.0
FC Tallinn
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 26%
Home Win & Under 2.5 31%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Tartu Welco2
21.09.25ESI
Tartu Welco2
FC Tallinn2
23.08.25ESI
FC Tallinn0
Tartu Welco2
05.07.25ESI
FC Tallinn1
Tartu Welco5
29.03.25ESI
Tartu Welco3
FC Tallinn1
26.01.25CF
FC Tallinn5
Tartu Welco3
03.11.24ESI
Tartu Welco1
FC Tallinn1
20.08.24ESI
FC Tallinn1
Tartu Welco3
14.06.24ESI
FC Tallinn1
Tartu Welco1
16.03.24ESI
Tartu Welco3
FC Tallinn0
Recent Form
Tartu Welco
01.06.26ESI
Elva0
Tartu Welco2
W
28.05.26ESI
Tartu Welco4
Nomme Kalju U212
W
24.05.26ESI
Maardu0
Tartu Welco1
W
17.05.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Flora U213
D
09.05.26ESI
Tallinna Kalev2
Tartu Welco0
L
01.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Tartu Welco2
W
27.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Elva3
D
23.04.26ESI
Viimsi JK2
Tartu Welco0
L
17.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U212
W
11.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
W
FC Tallinn
01.06.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
FC Tallinn3
W
28.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Maardu0
D
24.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Viimsi JK2
L
14.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn1
Tallinna Kalev1
D
07.05.26ESI
Elva2
FC Tallinn0
L
01.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Tartu Welco2
L
27.04.26ESI
FC Tallinn4
Levadia U212
W
23.04.26ESI
Maardu1
FC Tallinn1
D
16.04.26ESI
Viimsi JK5
FC Tallinn1
L
10.04.26ESI
Flora U215
FC Tallinn0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 13th June 2026, Tartu Welco host FC Tallinn in Estonia Esiliiga. We recommend Tartu Welco to win as the standout selection.

Tartu Welco arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FC Tallinn are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Tartu Welco, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to FC Tallinn's 1, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: tartu welco to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Esiliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.25. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tartu Welco vs FC Tallinn?
Our selection is 1 — Tartu Welco to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Tartu Welco's current form?
Tartu Welco have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has FC Tallinn been performing recently?
FC Tallinn have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Tartu Welco lead with 6 wins versus FC Tallinn's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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